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沒有躺贏，更不能躺平。當公平成為資本市場的主旋律時，效率可能會受到一定的影響。這也是這兩天港股互聯網板塊大跌的原因之一。公平首要目標是消除壟斷，因此互聯網平臺首當其沖的成為整治對象。無論是騰訊還是美團、阿里巴巴都在各自的領域處于絕對壟斷地位。這與美國的情況如出一轍。谷歌、亞馬遜、臉書分別在搜索、電子商務和社交平臺上的市場份額超過70%，處于絕對壟斷地位。大科技公司處于壟斷地位不僅壓制了小公司的成長，而且有可能會阻礙創新。一個充滿活力的經濟體，顯然不能讓大企業躺贏。當然，也不能讓年輕人因為經濟壓力巨大而躺平。我們的鄰國日韓兩國，年輕人都因為經濟壓力巨大而躺平，對社會和經濟發展造成嚴重的負面影響。沒有躺贏，意味著社會可以依靠創新而進步；沒有躺平，就意味著經濟活力可以長久的保持。

恐慌下跌之后反彈將隨時展開。周二港股在互聯網、教育板塊和房地產公司的帶動下一路走低。周一和周二兩天合計，港股恒生12個行業中只有公用事業板塊上漲，其余11個板塊下跌。跌幅居前的是醫療保健、資訊科技、非必需消費和房地產，分別下跌17%、16.2%、9.1和8%，這幾個板塊分別對應著“新三座大山”和互聯網平臺。港股市場有外資持續流出，因擔憂對個別板塊可能再出針對性的政策，譬如醫藥行業等。A股申萬28個行業周一和周二兩個交易日累計全部下跌，跌幅居前的是食品飲料、建筑材料、休閑服務和房地產，分別下跌10%、7.9%、7.7%和7.7%。A股沒有互聯網平臺公司上市，K12教育上市公司也較少，所以A股下跌的邏輯跟港股有所不同，主要是來自于抱團股的瓦解，食品飲料、建筑材料以及休閑服務都是抱團集中的行業。從估值看，港股估值已經到了較低的水平。恒生指數估值為1.1倍的靜態市凈率，處于2000年以來14%的分位。我們認為當前不該恐慌拋售，而應擇機買入。A股抱團股雖有調整，但整體估值水平仍然較高，且未來可能會有持續調整的可能，因此不建議介入。一些不受政策影響的行業和個股估值已經到了歷史較低水平，在這些低估值的板塊中尋找長線投資機會可能是A股當下更好的選擇。

Big companies should not make money effortless. Fairness has replaced efficiency to be the top goal in stock market. This has a big impact on platform technology companies. China has been facedwith the same situation as the US where big tech firms including Facebook,Amazon and Google taking absolute monopolistic position in social platform,e-commerce and search sector respectively. This has proved to make small technology companies hard to grow up and hamper innovation. And under the heavy living pressure young people have given up all efforts to make life better. This would also have big negative impact on social progress and economic development from what happens in Japan and South Korea. As such it is necessary to make policy change for a brighter future in China.

The rebound of A-share and HK stocks could come at any time.Both HK and A-share fell sharply over Monday and Tuesday. Only 1 sector rose in HK during these two trading days, which is utilities.Healthcare, tech, discretionary consumption and property sector fell the most at 17%, 16.2%, 9.1% and 8% respectively. International investors sell stocks in these sectors, worrying that more policy that target some sectors could come out. There are no platform technology companies and K12 education companies listed in A-share.The falling of A-share over the last two trading days is mainly caused by selling pressure of group-holding stocks. Food and beverage, construction material, leisure service and property sector fell the most in A-share at 10%, 7.9%, 7.7% and 7.7% respectively. Apart from property sector the other three sectors are where group-holding stocks concentrate. Hang Seng Index is now valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-book ratio 1.1x, which put it at 14% percentile since 2000. In A-share some sectors also valued at historical low levels. Given the low valuation levels it should be a good timing to buy stocks in these sectors. Group-holding stocks,although falling sharply, are still valued at high levels. They might continue to fall in the future. Hence, it might not be a good time to bottom fish these stocks.

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