看估值，看估值，看估值。周一A股和港股大跌，教育培訓和房地產板塊下跌應是意料之中。讓人想不到的是白酒板塊居然跌幅居前，白酒指數當日下跌7.22%。很多人認為白酒基本面良好，暴跌沒有理由。上周公布的公募基金二季報顯示：雖然食品飲料還是公募基金配置最大的一個板塊，截止2季度末公募基金配置比例為16.74%，但也是減倉幅度最大的一個板塊。二季度公募基金在食品飲料板塊減倉幅度達到2.12個百分點。其中中小公募基金減倉食品飲料的幅度最大，規模較大的基金減倉幅度較小，真正體現了“船大難掉頭，船小好調頭”。基金二季報披露出來的信號就是抱團已經瓦解，而股價還沒有大跌主要是時機未到。周一股價大跌白酒等板塊大跌，一個催化劑就是來自對政策的擔憂。白酒板塊過去幾年表現靚麗，資本介入程度也較深。有些上市公司依靠轉型白酒而實現了“烏雞變鳳凰”。資本介入往往意味著泡沫較大。看某知名白酒股，即使已經從高點下跌了31%，其靜態市盈率仍高達47.7倍。白酒板塊整體靜態市盈率為48.5倍，處在歷史上92.3%的分位。估值仍然處在較高水平也說明目前并不是抄底的好時機。水井坊的二季報也是引爆板塊暴跌的一個推手。作為醬香型白酒的一個代表，水井坊二季度凈利潤為負，主要因為費用投放過高導致。這也意味著白酒行業內部競爭的加劇。估值高疊加基本面惡化導致板塊大跌。其他如醫美、CXO等板塊的下跌也有類似的邏輯。在年初買入這些熱門板塊的投資人很可能都站在了山崗上。歸根結底，投資還是要看估值的，也沒有可以持有一輩子的股票。即使有，也需要歷經波折的。如何避免站在山崗上呢？一方面，在買入股票時就要關注估值。正如我們之前多次指出的，沒有企業能夠長期保持盈利的高速增長。以短期的盈利高增長而給予股票高估值，這本身就是一種風險。另一方面，要關注行業和個股的基本面變化。一旦基本面拐點發生，股價就要掉頭向下了。
港股跌幅大于A股。在互聯網、房地產和教育板塊的帶領下，港股周一大跌。博彩板塊跌幅也較大，應該跟疫情相關。南京疫情持續擴散，珠海等地又發現新的病例。這波疫情對3季度經濟增長恐怕會帶來一定的沖擊。
How to avoid being the last buyers of stocks? On Monday after-school training and property sector in A-share fell sharply due to policy impact. Yet spirit sector fell even more than these two sectors. The spirit index fell 7.2%, the worst performing index in A-share. Some investors thought that the fundamentals of spirit sector were solid and did not understand why the sector fell so much. The 2nd quarter report of mutual funds revealed that food and beverage sector, which spirit sector belongs to, remained as the largest holding for mutual funds. But it was also the largest sector that mutual funds cut exposure. In the 2ndquarter mutual funds cut 2.7 percentage point of food and beverage holdings. Most of the cut should be from spirits sector as this sector attracts the most mutual funds in A-share. And the bigger the funds are, the less exposure they cut; the smaller the funds are, the more exposure they cut. This means that spirit sector is no longer a group-holding one with so many funds exiting from the sector.Stocks would go lower with catalysts. On Monday one concern that market had about the spirit sector is that there is so much money flowing into this sector both in primary and secondary market. Hence, the sector has been in bubbles.Take the example of a famous spirit stock: it is still valued at 47.7x trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTW PE) even after falling 31% from its peak reached earlier this year. The spirit sector is valued at 48.5x TTW PE and at 92.5% percentile in the past 10 years. Given such high valuation levels it is not a good timing to bottom fish the sector right now. In summary investors should learn about the valuation level of a stock before buying it. It could be a risk to buy a high-valued stock just because the earnings growth of the company is fast. A company can not grow its earnings at a fast pace for a very long time. Once its earnings growth slows down valuation would also come down.
HK stocks fell more than A-share.One reason could be that pandemic from Nanjing has spread to other parts of China.
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