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中國老百姓的錢都花在了哪里。上周課外培訓行業受到政策的強力打壓。根據券商的測算：如果從小學1年級到高中3年級全部課外培訓都不讓在周末和寒暑假開展的話，則上市的K12培訓機構46-80%的收入就沒有了。年初以來，培訓類上市公司的股價最大跌幅達到97%，基本上反映了政策的嚴厲程度。投資人會很疑惑: 明明年初還是朝陽產業，怎么到了年中就成了夕陽產業了？其實產業還是在的，但是過度商業化之后就變成了讓老百姓不能幸福的行業了。教育、醫療和房地產行業被稱作中國老百姓的“新三座大山”，主要是因為這些支出占老百姓支出的比例過高。根據中國統計局，我國城鎮居民家庭個人消費支出中，醫療支出占比從1993年的2.7%上漲到2019年的8.1%，26年間占比上漲了3倍。住房支出占個人支出比例從1993年的6.6%上漲到24.2%，26年間占比上漲了3.7倍。教育支出沒有單獨的統計數據。從個人感受看，這個支出也是剛性的。雖然我國人均GDP達到1.1萬美金，但是城鎮居民花在食品上的支出仍占個人全部支出的27.6%。加上住房支出，吃和住合計占個人支出比例達到51.8%，再加上醫療支出和消費支出，估計中國老百姓大概80%的錢花在了維持基本的生活和發展需求上。而美國個人在食品和住宿上的支出占全部個人支出的比例僅為5.75%，醫療支出為16.4%，在教育上的支出沒有單獨的統計數據，即使教育支出跟醫療支出占比相當，也比中國老百姓在吃、住、醫療和教育上的支出占比低很多。

外資并未從香港大規模撤出。隨著中國政府對互聯網平臺和教育行業的整治，港股的科技股以及教育股大幅下跌。港股也從6月底至今表現疲弱，但從港幣對美元匯率來看，外資并沒有明顯的撤出。2020年4月到2021年2月，港幣對美元匯率多次處在強方兌換區間，港府不得不入市買入美元，賣出港幣。從2021年2月底，港幣對美元匯率開始走軟，到2021年4月達到7.785高點之后港幣開始重新走強。近期中美圍繞香港不斷有針對性的制裁出臺。但美方又積極尋求同中方開展對話，本周中美將在天津舉行高層對話。中美關系對香港股市有較大影響。2019年和2020年港股市場表現疲弱，跟中美關系惡化有很大關系。當前港股經過連續調整，很多板塊和個股估值都回落到很有吸引力的區間，具備投資價值。

Chinese consumers’ burden is heavy. The policy that targets after-school training was a big hit to those listed training companies in both HK and Nasdaq. Some investors are bewildered as to why the training sector, which was a promising sector at the beginning of 2021, turned into a sunset sector in just a couple of months. The so-called “new three mountains” for Chinese consumers are housing, medi-care and education. According to China Statistic Bureau, spending on medicine and healthcare comprised 2.7% of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) in 1993 and 8.1% in 2019. The ratio increased by 2 times in 26 years. Similarly, housing comprised 6.6% of PCE in 1993 and 24.2% in 2019. Although per capita GDP is above US$ 11000 in 2020, Chinese consumers still spent 27.6% of PCE on food. The food and housing combined together took 51.8% of PCE. There is no specific data about education and training. But from personal experience expenditure on this should not be low. If we assume education and training expenditure takes 10% of PCE, Chinese consumers spend about 80% of PCE on basic living and development needs. In comparison,the US consumers only spend 5.75% on food and housing and 16.5% on healthcare.Even if education expenditure is as high as healthcare, the US consumers would spend close to 40% on basic living and development needs, which is much less than Chinese consumers. Hence,it is understandable that policy target the "new three mountains".

There is no large international money exiting from HK. From April 2020 toearly Feb. 2021 HK to US dollar exchange rate hit strong exchange side. HK Monetary Authority had to sell HK dollar and buy the US dollar during this period. But from the end of Feb. 2021 to April 2021, the HK dollar depreciated against the US dollar. After it reached HK$ 7.785, the lowest point in two months, it began to appreciate again. Recently the Sino-US tensions rose around HK. HK market performed poorly in 2019 and 2020 when Sino-US relationship went low. Yet this situation might not last long as China and US will hold talks this week.

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