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港股疲弱。從2021年4月20日，即印度疫情爆發的時間點到7月20日，在全球16個主要國家和地區的指數中，恒生指數按漲幅排名倒數第二，在該區間（下同）下降6.6%，僅好于日本的下跌7.7%。在恒生12個綜合行業中，僅有兩個行業上漲，分別是醫藥生物和公用事業，分別上漲10%和1%。在下跌的10個行業中，7個行業的跌幅在5%以上。跌幅居前的行業是科技、地產建筑和綜合，分別下跌12%、10.9%和9.4%。港股從去年4季度到1季度表現較好，但是春節之后受A股下跌帶動以及港府征收印花稅的影響，表現弱勢。4月下旬印度疫情爆發后，港股一路下行，7月份以來甚至連續8天下跌。反觀印度，在此期間上漲8.8%，領漲全球16個主要國家和地區。港股如此疲弱的一個原因是美元指數走強。美元指數在2021年5月25日達到低點89.6685之后開始一路上行，至7月20日上漲至92.9764，近2個月時間上漲3.69%。我們在《港股明年大概率跑贏A股》中指出，港股跑贏A股通常是在美元貶值的時候，這種情況下，資金會從美國市場流入新興市場，而港股估值較低，通常最先受益。而當美元指數走強時，情況就恰恰相反。資金最先流出港股，回到美國本土市場。第二個原因是新冠疫情阻礙了經濟復蘇。港股價值股占比較高，很多是受益于經濟復蘇的。但是新冠疫情對這些板塊構成了較大沖擊，無論是博彩還是航空，都遠遠沒有恢復到2019年同期的水平，也低于市場預期的水平。這些困境中的公司似乎永遠也走不出困境，這也對港股造成了很大的壓力。再次，港股科技股去年表現全球領先，漲幅媲美納斯達克和A股的創業板。但今年以來，因為抱團股的瓦解疊加中國政府對互聯網平臺企業的整治，該板塊一蹶不振，領跌港股主要指數。最后，因為中國政府從5月份以來打壓大宗商品價格，相關的原材料板塊也走勢低迷。港股走強一方面需要市場跌出價值，我們認為當前估值已經具有吸引力。另一方面也需要外部的催化劑，如美元走弱或者我國經濟復蘇超預期。當然中美關系改善也是一個重要催化劑。

周二A股和港股均探底回升。A股微跌，港股跌幅近1個百分點，符合我們的判斷。美股和歐洲股市均從低點反彈，大宗商品價格回升。

The HK market has been weak since April. From April 20th to July 20th (the same below) Hang SengIndex fell 6.3%, ranked as the 15th among the 16 major global indexes. Nikkei Index of Japan fell 7.7%, the worst performer out of 16 major indexes. Only 2 sectors,ie. healthcare and utilities sector, rose out of 12 Hang Seng sectors. Among the 10 falling sectors 7 fell more than 5%. Tech, property and conglomerate fell the most at 12%, 10.9% and 9.4% respectively. In comparison Sensex30 of India rose 8.8%, the best performer among the 16 major indexes despite that Delta variant caused COVID-19 pandemic to resurge in India in mid-April. So why HK market was so weak? The first reason is that US dollar has been appreciating since the end of May. In “The HK market would likely outperform A-share in 2021” we found that when US dollar depreciates capital would flow to emerging markets. HK usually benefits more than any other market due to its low valuation. Yet when the US dollar appreciates the capital would flow back to the US and HK is the first market that capital exits. From the end of May the US dollar index rose 3.7% and above 93 on July 20th for the first time in two months. The second reason is that the pandemic has hampered economic recovery. Stocks associated with economic recovery comprises a big component of the HK market. These companies’earnings were below expectation and hence their stock performance. The last but not the least is that Chinese government took measure to control inflation which put commodity prices under pressure. Raw material sector fell sharply. When would HK market perform again? The first is that the market falls to a level with deep value, which we believe it has done. The second is that it needs catalysts, such as better-than-expected economic recovery and US dollar depreciation. Any improvementin Sino-US relationship could drive the market up.

Both A-share and HK market bottomed out on Tuesday. The US and European market also rebounded from a big sell-off on Tuesday.

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