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美國股債大跌，美元上漲。周一美國10年期國債收益率下跌到1.2%以下，為5個月以來的新低。如果債券市場對經濟的預期是對的，那說明美國經濟很可能要下行。另一方面，美聯儲要削減債券購買計劃。在此情況下，利率應該上行。債券詭異的下行是因為什么呢？有一部分分析師認為是交易性因素導致的。今年美股表現很好，機構投資者在股市賺錢之后回頭又買入債券，壓低了債券的利率。歸根結底是流動性過于充裕造成的。而美元指數在5月25日達到89.6565低點，之后一路反彈上沖到92.8285，周一略有回落。因OPEC+達成石油增產協議，疊加新冠疫情加劇可能會減少對石油的需求，石油價格周一大跌。美債、美股和石油下跌結合美元上漲，給人感覺是避險情緒在發生作用。我們認為主要是市場對Delta病毒的擔憂。但根據美國知名對沖基金經理比爾·阿克曼，Delta病毒將會促使更多的人去接種新冠疫苗，其實對疫情控制是有利的。比爾·阿克曼認為美國國債收益率最終還是會上升，并認為美國經濟會在秋季有強勁表現。但另一方面，美國經濟同比增速在今年2季度達到高點之后，3、4季度將會下行。如同中國經濟在1季度同比增速達到高點之后，2季度開始下行一樣。但這并不代表經濟失去了增長的動力。環比來看，中國2季度的經濟增速是比1季度要高的。美國的情況也應如此，特別是美國股市上漲幅度巨大，居民財富增值很多。同時，巨額財政刺激下，老百姓手頭也很寬裕，且有可能是史上最寬裕的時期。這意味著美國經濟3季度的環比增長將會比較強勁。未來有可能是國債收益率上升和美股上漲疊加美元指數回升。市場還擔心美聯儲和財政部手里沒有多少彈藥可用，美國經濟可能會從此一蹶不振。美聯儲和財政部聯手實施的現代貨幣政策理論其實意味著量化寬松沒有上限，但是對經濟的后果就是增大債務量，將問題發生的時間后移。

周一A股微跌，港股大跌。今年以來，因中國政府收緊流動性，A股和港股漲幅落后于全球股市。受中美關系影響，港股7月份以來接連下跌。另一方面，我國貨幣政策已有所松動，對股市提供支撐。而上半年缺位的財政政策下半年也將會發力，因此經濟下行將是可控的、溫和的。因此，我們認為A股和港股跟跌美股的可能性較小。

The US is not in another crisis. On Monday the US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.206%, the lowest from Feb. 2021. The US stocks fell sharply amid the concern of rising new cases caused by Delta variant. In the meantime the US dollar rose to a new high from the end of May. As the Federal Reserve is preparing to taper the bond yield should rise rather than fall. Some analysts believed that falling treasury yield was due to that the institutional investors took profits from stock markets and put the money into bond market,i.e., the bond prices were driven up by abundant liquidity. But the combination of falling treasury yield, stocks prices tumble along with rising US dollar usually means a big risk is looming. This risk is highly transmissible Delta variant. But according to a famous hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, the Delta variant would push more American to get vaccinated. This is actually good for the economy. Moreover, with huge cash in hands the American consumers would spend and boost economy. He believed that the US economy would be robust in the fall. Contrary to his optimism, many analysts believe that the US economy is peaking in 2Q2021. The bond market is reflecting that economy would slow down gradually. It is true that on year-on-year basis the US economy would peak out in 2Q2021 due to the low base in 2020. But from quarter-on-quarter perspective the US economy would grow strongly for the 3rd quarter. The American consumers have enjoyed the big increase of fortune as the stock market rallied year-to-date. Moreover, they also have big cash on hands issued by government as unemployment compensation.

A-share fell slightly while HK stocks fell sharply. If the US market corrects would A-share and HK stocks follow suit? We believe the possibility is nothigh. Both A-share and HK stocks lagged behind other major stock markets year-to-date. Moreover, HK markets recently corrected a lot due to the deteriorating Sino-US relationship. Both have much lower valuation than global peers. As China controls COVID-19 pandemic better than any other country in the world, A-share and HK stocks should be considered as safe heaven.

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