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中國(guó)2季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增速環(huán)比上行。中國(guó)2季度GDP同比增速為7.9%，略低于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。環(huán)比增速為1.3%，高于1季度的0.6%，但慢于去年4季度的2.6%。工業(yè)增加值同比增速為8.3%，預(yù)期為7.8%；社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額同比增速為12.1%，高于預(yù)期的11%。2季度來(lái)看，無(wú)論工業(yè)、消費(fèi)還是出口都超出市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，顯示經(jīng)濟(jì)仍處在復(fù)蘇的態(tài)勢(shì)中。值得注意的是，2季度中國(guó)仍有疫情發(fā)生，但消費(fèi)已經(jīng)有明顯改善，一方面顯示我國(guó)應(yīng)對(duì)疫情的能力，另一方面則是疫情如控制得好，其對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的負(fù)面影響可控。

疫情下的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。疫情下世界經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇呈現(xiàn)兩級(jí)分化。西方發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇進(jìn)程超預(yù)期，因?yàn)橐呙缃臃N率較高；而大多數(shù)發(fā)展中國(guó)家都因?yàn)闆](méi)有或缺少疫苗，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇一波三折。近期受到Delta變異毒株的影響，多國(guó)新冠疫情蔓延態(tài)勢(shì)加速。世界銀行北京時(shí)間周四表示，東亞和太平洋地區(qū)(除中國(guó))今年GDP增速可能會(huì)低于此前預(yù)期，因該地區(qū)的許多國(guó)家面臨疫情再次大爆發(fā)和疫苗接種率不足的問(wèn)題。世界銀行行長(zhǎng)馬爾帕斯(David Malpass)周四稱，東亞和太平洋地區(qū)(除中國(guó))今年預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)4%，低于3月份預(yù)測(cè)的4.4%，其中緬甸等飽受疫情沖擊的國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑幅度將超過(guò)預(yù)期。不過(guò)，馬爾帕斯表示，如果將中國(guó)涵蓋在內(nèi)，預(yù)計(jì)該地區(qū)今年經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將達(dá)到7.7%，高于3月7.4%的預(yù)測(cè)值。世衛(wèi)組織日前也指出受Delta變異病毒影響，全球正處在第三波疫情大爆發(fā)前夕。我們認(rèn)為美國(guó)等發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家所受影響將會(huì)較小。當(dāng)前，美國(guó)餐飲和出行需求已經(jīng)恢復(fù)到疫情前的水平，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇穩(wěn)步進(jìn)行中。

A股和港股上漲，美股漲跌不一。受到隔夜美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)鴿派立場(chǎng)的提振，A股和港股上漲。美股漲跌不一，其中納指和標(biāo)普下跌，而道指上漲。美國(guó)發(fā)布二季度業(yè)績(jī)的公司基本均超預(yù)期，但股價(jià)漲幅有限，顯示利好已經(jīng)在股價(jià)中。隨著美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇進(jìn)一步推進(jìn)，美國(guó)10年期國(guó)債收益率有可能從低位向上，對(duì)以科技股為主的納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)將會(huì)有一定的沖擊，對(duì)A股的成長(zhǎng)股也會(huì)有沖擊。

2^ndquarter GDP grew quarter-on-quarter. China’s 2nd quarter GDP grew 7.9% year-on-year(yoy), slightly lower than expectation. It rose 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, which is faster than 0.6% in 1st quarter but slower than the 4th quarter 2020. The industrial value-added grew 8.3% yoy and retail sales grew 12.1%. Both were higher than expected. In the 2nd quarter industrial value-added, retail sales and import-export came in higher than market expectation. It is also noticeable that consumption recovered strongly despite that there were pandemic cases surging in several cities in China. This reflects that China has got to know how to deal with the pandemic without affecting economy too much.

Global economic recovery in pandemic is uneven.This is because vaccines are still in shortage. For those western countries that have purchased more than enough vaccines their economic recovery has been smoothly. For example, the US dining-out and airline traffic have come back to pre-pandemic levels. Yet in East Asia and Pacific region (excluding China) due to the Delta variant the economic growth would slow down significantly. The World Bank downgraded this region’s economic growth in 2021 from 4.4% to 4%.But if China is included the region’s growth rate would be raised from 7.3% to 7.7%. WHO also warned that due to the Delta variant the world would experience the third wave of COVID-19 pandemic. Yet the developed countries would suffer less than developing countries given that their vaccination rate is pretty high. 

Both A-share and HK stocks rose due to the dovish Fed. The US market was mixed with DOW rising and SP 500 and Nasdaq falling. With strong economic recovery the US treasury yield could go up from current low levels. This would cause correction of the mega-tech stocks in the US as well as growth stocks inA-share and HK market. 

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