不宜悲觀。在6月份社融數據超預期以及下半年大宗商品價格可能見頂回落的情況下全面降準讓市場猜測經濟比預期的差。本周四將公布6月份和2季度的經濟數據，屆時將會對市場的預期做出回應。我們的判斷是經濟確實進入了下行期，但是下行的幅度比較緩慢，不應過度悲觀。從景氣指標官方制造業采購經理人指數看，我們可以看到小企業該指數幾乎從2012年以來就基本處在收縮的狀態，處在擴張區間的時間較少。而6月份的小企業官方制造業采購經理人指數還有所改善，從5月份的48.8%上行到49.1%。但是上半年大宗商品價格的上漲確實對中小企業而言壓力巨大，另外疫情也影響了很多從事餐飲服務的中小企業。從經濟周期看，庫存周期下行期一般對應著降準降息?？梢哉f這次為應對經濟潛在下行，政府確實是做到了未雨綢繆。那當前估值割裂的市場接下來會如何演繹呢？我們認為成長和價值股均有機會，但是估值低的彈性會更大。并且如果指數能上行甚至突破前期高點，一定是低估值價值股帶領的，而不是高估值的成長股。我們仍看好周期股、低估價值股。經濟復蘇股當前預期過低，個別板塊接近2020年3月的低點，有一點催化劑板塊就會有較好的漲幅。
中美金融周期短暫趨同。美國目前仍處在大放水時期，而中國的貨幣政策也開始趨向寬松。中美金融周期暫時趨同，對人民幣的升值壓力減輕。上周五收盤后我國央行宣布全面降低存款準備金0.5個百分點，人民幣匯率應聲走軟。從5月底央行開始出手抑制人民幣升值以來，人民幣貶值幅度達到1.86%。但美國有可能在今年下半年開始收縮流動性，而中國則因為經濟下行貨幣政策不太可能過緊，中美兩國的金融周期將會再度背離。受到中美金融周期背離的影響，人民幣也許將會在下半年見到更大幅度的貶值，但是幅度應有限。人民幣過度貶值將會導致外資持續流出，對我國股市和債市都不利。我們之前提到過今年不是2018年，主要原因是中國的經濟形勢本身強于2018年，另外貨幣和財政政策也較2018年更加友好。這意味著中國經濟整體承受沖擊的能力強于2018年，大可不必擔憂股災再度發生。
No need to be pessimistic. As June aggregate social financing came in above expectation and that commodity prices are expected to peak out in 2H2021, the news that People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut the reserve ratio for all banks was out of expectation. Market then became concerned that economy might be worse than expected. The June and 2nd quarter economic data will be released on Thursday. We do not expect too much downside risk. Although China’s economy has been on a downward trend it would go down gradually rather than sliding. To cut reserve ratio is actually to help the small- to mid-sized enterprises (SMEs). The official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index for small businesses in June showed that SMEs were on the contraction area. This might be due to the pandemic, which made SMEs in catering sector faced with difficulties to find customers. Moreover, high-flying commodities prices also made them difficult to maintain a profit. Banks can lower the interest cost of SMEs after reserve ratio becomes lower. For stock market both value stocks and growth stocks would perform in an easing monetary environment. Yet if the stock market can go higher, the value stocks would perform better than growth stocks as the latter’s valuation is already over-stretched.
The convergence of monetary policy of China and the US. That PBOC has lowered reserve ratio for all banks means that China’s easing monetary policy. This is in line with the US, which is still in easing monetary policy. RMB has depreciated 1.86% against the US dollar since the end of May. Market expects the Federal Reserve to take back liquidity in 2H2021. This would cause the divergence of monetary policy of China and the US again. As such RMB might depreciate further in 2H2021 but we deem that it would not depreciate too much as what happened in 2018. On the one hand the financial deleveraging has made big progress; on the other hand China’s economy in 2H2021 would be better than in 2018. So again this year would not be a repeat of 2018.
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