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通縮了嗎？A股和港股周四大跌，市場對經(jīng)濟復蘇有很大的疑慮。政府提出適時降準可能表明經(jīng)濟增速不及預期。而市場擔心銀行將會再次向實體經(jīng)濟讓利，銀行股大跌。近期中美兩國的國債收益率均下行，美國10年期國債收益率周四早盤跌破1.25%，一些股票基金經(jīng)理可能會認為經(jīng)濟有重大利空，相應地要減持股票配置。而中國10年期國債收益率也在周四跌破了3%達到2.9975%，這是2020年8月24日以來10年期國債收益率首次跌破3%的水平。國債收益率下行，通常反應市場的避險情緒，側面反應經(jīng)濟走弱。A股市場從上周開始調(diào)整，港股市場過去8個交易日中6個下跌。資金撤離A股和港股市場是因為美元指數(shù)上行，導致資金逃離新興市場。對港股而言，年初的上漲主要是由經(jīng)濟復蘇預期推動的。經(jīng)濟復蘇股3月份之后在港股表現(xiàn)不及預期，4月份是因為受到疫情的沖擊，但5月份以來應該是受到經(jīng)濟下行的擔憂。而A股只有個別板塊包括新能源和半導體表現(xiàn)，大部分板塊都處在下跌的走勢中。因此，無論A股還是港股其實都在反應經(jīng)濟下行。我們之前判斷從官方制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)看，該數(shù)據(jù)在3月份達到高點之后回落顯示中國經(jīng)濟觸頂之后進入了庫存周期下行期。中國經(jīng)濟距離衰退應還有距離。因此，當前仍應該配置股票。而美國經(jīng)濟仍處在庫存周期沖頂?shù)碾A段，在美聯(lián)儲即將開啟縮減購買計劃的時機，美國國債收益率出人意料的下行猜測更多是技術層面而非基本面因素造成的。因此，通脹仍是當前的主要問題而不是通縮。也許四季度我們討論通縮會比較合適。

Is deflation coming? The tumble of both A-share and HK stocks reflects that investors are concerned that China’s economy might be on the downward trend. This seems to be verified by the news that government would lower reserve ratio for banks.Bank stocks dropped sharply as market worried that banks were asked to give out some profit to industries if economy goes down. Recently both China and the US treasury yield fell. In China 10-year treasury yield fell below 3% to 2.9975% on Thursday, the first time since August 24th 2020. The decrease of treasury yield usually means that market is risk-averse and treasury is taken as safe heaven.  The US 10-year treasury yield fell below 1.25% in the early trading hours on Thursday. Portfolio managers would take this as a signal that economy would come down sharply and cut off equity allocation. A-share began to correct last week while HK stocks fell for six sessions over the last 8 trading days. In A-share only a couple of sectors rose including new energy and semi-conductor. Other sectors fell sharply. In HK market sectors associated with economy recovery fell from mid-March due to the resurging pandemic. Yet from May they continued to fall due to the concern that economy might be weakening. Our judgment is that China’s economy has peaked out in March as shown by the official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index. Yet it is still far from recession.Hence equity should still be the top-pick in asset allocation. Inflation is still dominant at this moment. We might need to consider deflation in the 4thquarter this year when economy comes down further.

Global stocks fell with VIX index rising. The initial jobless claim last week in the US was worse than expected. This along with June ISM PurchasingManger’s Index showed that the US economy might be slowing down. Also as Japan Olympics would not allow spectators to witness the matches investors worry that the pandemic might come back again. Financials and industrial stocks in the US fell the most. VIX index rose above 20. 

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