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價值股將再度崛起。周二最堅硬的抱團板塊CXO大跌。國家藥監局藥審中心日前發布《以臨床價值為導向的抗腫瘤藥物臨床研發指導原則》征求意見稿，市場認為該指導原則將會打擊醫藥研發中的偽創新，增加創新藥上市的難度，間接利空為創新藥做研發和臨床試驗的CXO板塊。但不可否認的是CXO板塊經過持續兩年多的上漲，很多公司都漲了10倍以上，當前板塊估值處在極高的水平。因此，基本面的一點利空就對股價構成重大利空。抱團股中的新能源汽車和半導體行業仍舊如火如荼，而白酒和醫藥板塊則接連遭遇重挫。我們認為抱團股很可能要就此低迷一段時間：一方面，如果美國收緊流動性，高估值板塊將會面臨較大壓力；另一方面，抱團股二季度業績有待驗證，如果業績不及預期，則股價將會進一步調整。而與之相對應的是，年初以來，價值股只是在3月份之前有所表現，之后再度低迷。但隨著二季度業績來臨，我們認為價值股將會有較好表現。很多價值股在2020年遭遇疫情沖擊，業績不及預期。今年盡管疫情仍時有發生，但是，總體上要好過2020年同期水平。因此價值股的業績有很大概率超預期，同時價值股的估值仍處在歷史最低水平。因此，一旦業績超預期，股價就將會有較好表現。投資人對成長股耳熟能詳，而對價值股卻有些陌生。其實，大金融、地產、上游周期等板塊都是價值股的典型代表。這些板塊中的大部分從新冠危機以來鮮有表現，個別板塊近期屢創新低，顯示市場對他們的預期極度悲觀。但未來認為隨著業績提升，這些板塊的估值也將會有提升，價值股終將會有較好表現。

A股和港股均探底回升，美股漲跌不一。美股能源和銀行股下跌，而科技股上漲。10年期國債收益率下跌至1.36%，為2021年2月以來的最低點。美國6月供應管理協會制造業采購經理人指數低于預期，市場認為美國經濟可能正在接近峰值。A股和港股尾盤在金融股的推動下回升。中辦國辦印發《關于依法從嚴打擊證券違法活動的意見》，打擊違法犯罪活動，嚴格執行強制退市制度對股市是重大利好，將會有助于價值股的崛起。

The come back of value stocks is on the way. CXO sector fell sharply on Tuesday as Centre for Drug Evaluation of National Medical Products Administration issued a draft for comments of “Guideline Principles of Clinical Research and Development of Anti-oncology Medicines”.This draft could hit fake innovation in medicine R&D and make it hard for innovation drugs to be brought up to the market. Both are negative for CXO sectors. Yet in CXO sectors many stocks are ten baggers and their valuation is at an extreme level. Hence, a piece of negative news hit the sector hard. In group-holding stocks new energy and semi-conductor stocks are still rising well while spirits and medicine stocks have suffered big retreat recently. In the near future these group-holding stocks might perform poorly as the Federal Reserve could take back liquidity soon. Also with the second quarter earnings to be released some of those group-holding stocks’ earnings might disappoint the market. On the contrary, value stocks could come back again. On the one hand they have not performed well since March and valuation is still very low;on the other hand, their earnings in the 2nd quarter could surprise the market to the upside. Value stocks include those in financial, property and upstream cyclical sectors. Some stocks in these sectors have seen their prices fall to the lowest levels in years. Investors are pessimistic about their prospects. Yet this would be the best time to invest in these stocks.

A-share and HK stocks bottomed up while the US stocks were mixed on Tuesday. The June ISM Purchasing Manager’s Index in the US came in lower than expected. Market is concerned that the US economy might be peaking out. Energy and bank stocks fell while tech stocks rose in the US. The General Office of the Central Government Council and the State Council issued “The opinion about cracking down the illegal activities in capital market” on Tuesday. Delisting rules would be executed strictly. This is a big positive for A-share and would help value stocks to come back. 

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