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對(duì)大跌的反思。上周五A股放量大跌，與央行回收流動(dòng)性有一定關(guān)系。A股申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中只有兩個(gè)行業(yè)上漲，分別是有色金屬和商業(yè)貿(mào)易，其余26個(gè)行業(yè)下跌。其中跌幅居前的是休閑服務(wù)、醫(yī)藥生物和食品飲料，也即抱團(tuán)股集中的行業(yè)。一方面，這些股票從3月份以來反彈的幅度較高，其中部分個(gè)股漲幅翻倍；另一方面，這些抱團(tuán)股的估值也重新回到了歷史最高水平。對(duì)于炒股票而言，只要公司不斷出利好，股價(jià)就可以上漲，無需看估值。但是，如果基本面變差了，這些股票的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也很大。特別是一些賽道股，如果賽道的邏輯發(fā)生變化，對(duì)股價(jià)而言就是慢慢熊途。所以，估值的重要性就是它提供了安全邊際。而買入有安全邊際的股票是保護(hù)本金安全的一個(gè)重要方面。A股市場(chǎng)因?yàn)閭€(gè)人投資者占比較高，市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)交易者眾多，博弈色彩濃重，先跑路就是賺到的意識(shí)是市場(chǎng)很多交易者的心理寫照。一旦群體情緒疊加負(fù)面因素，市場(chǎng)隨即發(fā)生大跌。所以，A股市場(chǎng)如能保持長期投資的理念，還是可以賺到錢的。因?yàn)椋袌?chǎng)總會(huì)出現(xiàn)個(gè)股低估的機(jī)會(huì)。總之，投資就要做正確的事情。很多人不清楚投資中什么是正確的事情。投資中第一正確的事情是不要追逐泡沫。如何判斷泡沫？問問周圍的人都拿了什么股票。如果都拿著同樣的股票，說明這只或者這類股票已經(jīng)有泡沫了。人多的地方通常就是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大的地方。

如何看待美國6月非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)超預(yù)期？6月非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)看起來很完美。新增就業(yè)85萬人，超市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。但是私營部門就業(yè)仍低于預(yù)期，同時(shí)勞動(dòng)參與率也與5月持平。盡管現(xiàn)在有20多個(gè)州已經(jīng)或?qū)⒁K止州政府300美金的失業(yè)補(bǔ)貼，但70%的勞動(dòng)力不會(huì)受到這個(gè)因素的影響。由于勞動(dòng)力供應(yīng)不足，時(shí)薪工資已經(jīng)較一年前上漲了4.5%。市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在8月份的杰克遜年會(huì)上宣布縮減債券購買計(jì)劃，但是制約勞動(dòng)力短缺的因素短時(shí)間并不會(huì)消失。有分析師認(rèn)為可能需要等到11月份才有可能見到勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的真實(shí)情況。不過美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)真的能等那么久嗎？

Reflection on A-share tumble last Friday. One reason possible is that the People’s Bank of China withdrew liquidity. Only 2 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose, which were non-ferrous metal and textile sector. Leisure service, bio-medicine and food and beverage fell the most. These sectors are full of group-holding stocks. Some stock prices in these sectors doubled over the last two months and valuation was over-stretched.For those investors who chase stocks they only care whether companies can grow their earnings at a fast rate and do not care about their valuation. This is especially true in A-share as many investors are trend-followers. The risk is that if trends are going down, then stock prices can fall sharply. So buying stocks with safety margin is very important in investment. By doing so one can protect his or her principle. In investment the most important thing is to do right things and the foremost right thing is not to chase bubbles.

How to look at the non-farm payroll data in June? The US non-farm payroll in June was 850,000, higher than expected. However, private payroll numbers were 662,000, lower than 1 million expected. Moreover, the labor-force participation rate was flat in June despite better hiring than in May. There are 20+ states that are cutting or going to cut the extra US$300 a week in unemployment insurance ahead of the federal program’s Sept. 6 expiration. But 70% of the working population would not be affected by this.  As such, wage inflation has become very severe.In June average hourly earnings went up by 4.5% from a year ago. Over the past three months, overall wages are up an annualized 6% due to labor shortage. The situation of supply constraints in labor market would continue for some time as unemployment benefits, child-care and pandemic, which are factors that prevent people from seeking jobs, would continue into September. Some analysts expect the Federal Reserve to take actions to cut off bond purchasing in Jackson Hole annual meeting.  But others expect the Fed to take actions only when labor market becomes more clear. The earliest that Fed would take any actions would be in November.

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