牛市中的熊市。年初至今，申萬28個行業中20個上漲，8個下跌。這八個行業分別是家用電器、非銀金融、農林牧漁、國防軍工、房地產、傳媒、商業貿易和通信。這些板塊在牛市里走出了熊市。這里面不乏白馬股，如格力電器和美的集團，二者的股價年初至今分別下跌17.5%和25.4%。無論是格力還是美的年初至今都曾經拋出巨量回購股份計劃，但難阻股價持續下滑。原因何在呢？過去兩年漲幅過大透支了估值。格力在2019年上漲了91%，2020年股價基本持平。而美的2020年上漲了73.6%。美的和格力當前的靜態市盈率分別為17.6和12.8倍，均處在歷史較高水平。所以，未來股價的走勢還需要看基本面能否有較好的表現，否則估值還有很大的下調空間。當然，下跌的股票并不完全是因為過去兩年漲幅過大，比如非銀金融、房地產、傳媒等。這些行業的股價2020年沒有什么表現。2021年股價持續調整，一方面是行業自身的原因，如傳媒，另一方面是受到政策的打壓，如房地產。但有的行業比如券商的持續低迷其實是反應了資金的偏好。所以，這些持續走弱的板塊何時能再度走強受到多方面因素的制約，包括資金的風險偏好，行業基本面的好轉以及政策的放松。對于那些市盈率已經處在歷史較低水平的公司，可能在接下來會有較高的回報。杰里米·西格爾曾經說過，投資于市盈率最低水平的公司，換句話說，投資于增長預期較溫和的股票的投資組合，遠勝于投資于高價格、高預期的公司的投資組合。因此，對于那些漲勢如虹、似乎牛市永在的板塊的公司，可以采取回避的態度。
周一A股上漲，港股下跌，而美股大漲。中國人民銀行發文表示市場流動性充足，A股上漲，成長股漲幅居前，上證50跌幅居前。年初至今，上證50下跌5.95%，領跌A股指數；而創成長指數上漲16.82%,領漲A股。無論A股還是港股，周期股都跌幅居前，一些投資人認為在中國政府的打壓和美聯儲收縮流動性的雙重壓力下，周期的行情已經結束。美股大漲，道指創下三月以來表現最好的一天。美聯儲官員周一表示當前的重要問題是收縮債券購買規模的時間和節奏。
The bear in a bull market. Year-to-date 20 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose with the remaining 8 sectors falling.These sectors are home appliance, non-bank financials, farming and fishery,military defense, property, media and commerce and trade. Take two stocks in home appliance as an example, Geli Appliance and Midea Group. Geli and Midea each saw their stock prices plunge by 17.5% and 25.4% despite that both of them have issued stock repurchase plan at a big scale. Geli and Midea is now valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8x and 17.6x, the relatively high levels in their history. Geli’s stock rose 92% in 2019 and remained athigh levels in 2020. Midea rose 73.6% in 2020. That should be the reason that both of them fell in 2021: the high-valuation combined with deteriorating fundamentals. Other sectors fell due to different reasons. Some are under policy pressure such as property. Others struggled with growth challenges due to sector development bottlenecks. But for those whose valuation has fallen to historical low levels, they might present good investment opportunities. Jeremy Siegel said in his book “The Future For Investors” that investment return from investing in a portfolio of low-valued stocks could achieve higher return than investing in a portfolio with high-valued stocks. The reason is that low valuation usually reflects low expectations and only a modest earnings growth could boost valuation. And the high valuation reflects high expectations and it turns out that earnings miss expectation in some cases. Hence, for those high-valued stocks whether their earnings growth can match with their valuation would be a key to their stock prices.
A-share rose while HK stocks fell. The People’s Bank of China said that liquidity is abundant, which provides confidence to the market. SSE 50 Index fell the most while Chinext Momentum Index rose the most. Cyclicalstocks fell the most in both A-share and HK market.
The US stocks rallied. Reopening stocks and cyclical sectors rose the most.
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