上周（下同）全球普跌。全球16個國家和地區的重要指數中只有4個上漲，12個下跌。其中澳大利亞、中國臺灣、韓國和日本股票上漲，而美國道指、標普和俄羅斯指數股票跌幅領先。上證指數、深成指和恒生指數分別下跌1.8%、1.5%和0.1%。A股行業中，23個下跌，僅有5個上漲，分別是電子、國防軍工、通信、綜合和汽車，休閑服務、鋼鐵和有色金屬領跌。港股12個行業中僅有2個上漲，分別為工業和非必需消費業，而跌幅居前的行業為原材料、能源和地產建筑業。北上資金凈流出50億人民幣，南下資金凈流出24億港幣。
市場不相信美聯儲能夠退出流動性寬松政策。美聯儲上周鴿變鷹引起全球大部分股票市場下跌。但5年期隔夜指數掉期（隔夜指數掉期 Overnight Index Swap是將隔夜利率交換成為若干固定利率的利率掉期，是一家金融機構利用手頭資金向另一家金融機構借出隔夜貸款的利率）市場則反應美聯儲不會退出。該指數掉期利率今年年初為2.4%，但在上周美聯儲議息會議時僅為1.94%。周五美聯儲著名鴿派布拉德發表鷹派言論時，僅為1.71%。利率期貨市場真是打臉美聯儲。市場認為美聯儲無法實際退出寬松的貨幣政策，一方面因為美國經濟已負債累累，當前美國債務占GDP的比例超過100%，而且美國總統拜登還將2022年的財政預算定在6萬億美金，其中大部分將通過舉債來融資。另一方面，上一次美聯儲退出寬松的貨幣政策也僅是將聯邦基金利率提升到2.5%，而且不得不在疫情大規模爆發之前將利率下調到0。如果上一次全球金融危機之后，美聯儲無法退出寬松的貨幣政策，為什么這一次就可以退出呢？金融市場對貨幣政策的敏感性歷史來上從沒有這么高。美聯儲的資產負債表已是GDP的40%，支撐了資產價格的上漲，而消費者依靠股市的財富效應加大支出來支撐經濟。所以，任何股市的調整都會對美國經濟產生負面影響。股市的狂歡有可能會繼續。對利率敏感的行業最受益，如科技。但長期看，這會導致滯漲。通脹仍是一個威脅。因此，貴金屬、農產品和大宗商品仍將勝出。而亞洲和歐洲的股市也將有較好表現。
美股上周五大跌。美聯儲官員認為加息有可能提前到2022年。
Last week most of the global stock indexes fell. 12 out of the 16 global major indexes fell while only 4 rose, which were Australia, China Taiwan, Japan and South Korea. DOW, SP 500 and Russia RTS Index fell the most. Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and Hang Seng Index fell1.8%, 1.5% and 0.1% respectively. In A-share 5 out of 28 sectors rose while the remaining 23 fell with electronic sector rising the most and non-ferrous metal falling the most. 2 out of 12 sectors in HK market rose with industrial sector rising the most. North-bound and south-bound capital net outflow was RMB5billion and HK$2.4 billion respectively.
Market predicts that the Federal Reserve (Fed) can’t exit from QE. Last week Fed turned into hawkish from dovish. However, Overnight Index Swap (OIS) market did not expect that Fed could exit from QE. OIS rate was 2.4% earlier this year when long-run rate rose. It was 1.9% last week when the Fed Open Market Conference convened and 1.7% last Friday when James Bullard, Louisiana Chairman of Fed, who was famous for being dovish, turned into hawkish. The OIS market told Fed that they just did not believe they could exit QE. On one hand, the US is highly indebted with debt-to-GDP ratio is above 40%. Moreover, President Biden set fiscal budget at US$ 6 trillion for 2022, most of which would be raised via debt. On the other hand, the Fed only raised interest rate to 2.5% after 2008 global financial crises and had to cut it to zero due to the pandemic crises in 2020.Why should one assume that Fed can exit QE as it didn't accomplish it in the last crisis? As such the stock market can continue to enjoy the abundant liquidity,especially for rate-sensitive sectors such as technology along with Asian and European stocks. Yet inflation would still be there. And precious metal, commodities and agricultural products would perform well.
The US stocks fell sharply last Friday. James Bullard said that the Fed could raise interest rate in 2022 rather than in 2023. This triggered market sell-off and VIX index rose sharply.
聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權，授權上海海獅資產管理有限公司轉載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產不對任何人因使用本文中的內容所引發的損失負任何責任。未經楓瑞資產書面授權，本文中的內容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產版權的方式使用和轉載。市場有風險，投資需謹慎。
免費咨詢電話：0757-2833-3269 或 131-0659-0746
公司名稱：上海海獅資產管理有限公司 HESS Capital, LLC
公司地址：廣東省佛山市順德區天虹路46號信保廣場南塔808
Copyright 2014-2020 上海海獅資產管理有限公司版權所有
滬ICP備2020029404號-1
