周三抱團股和有色股齊跌。A股和港股均延續前一交易日的跌勢。申萬28個行業中僅4個上漲，分別為銀行、家用電器、房地產和建筑裝飾，均為低估值價值股，而抱團股普跌，抱團股集中的創業板指數下跌4%。港股12個綜合行業中只有金融和公用事業業上漲，能源行業持平，其余9個行業下跌。因國儲拋售基本金屬，原材料行業領跌兩市。北上資金凈流出4.05億人民幣，南下資金凈流出26.4億港幣。5月工業增加值、社會消費品零售總額和固定資產投資的增速都低于預期。疫情導致的不確定性依然困擾經濟，企業資本開支和雇傭方面都相對謹慎，而最終的影響落到了消費上，這也是疫情以來消費持續低于預期的一個主要原因。
理性投機可不可取？所謂理性投機就是機構投資者炒股票，薅羊毛。本應踐行價值投資理念的機構投資者也像散戶一樣炒股票不免讓人覺得驚訝。但A股市場波動較大，這樣做也無可厚非。海外知名機構投資者也有在A股炒某著名消費股。在A股市場要適者生存。不過，散戶炒股票基本不看投資價值。機構投資者炒股票還要以價值投資為名，這就有點讓人匪夷所思。短炒還用看價值嗎？另一方面，運用資金優勢炒股票似乎有操縱股價的嫌疑。機構投資者如果能夠真正秉持價值投資理念的，就應該選出低估值、有業績支撐的股票。順便說一下：這樣的股票在A股有很多，能容納大資金。抱團在幾十只市盈率高企的股票上既不是價值投資，也不符合股票市場規律。信用周期下行期，成長板塊的估值應該是被壓縮的。而硬靠著資金優勢支撐估值，遲早有一天會發現不過是一廂情愿。特別是在通脹高企利率上升的環境下。歷史看，股市該來的調整遲到過但沒有缺席過。本來在較長時間內能夠完成的調整如果在較短的時間完成，那么調整就會十分劇烈。就如同周三在A股市場發生的情況。全球通脹上行，美聯儲也將收縮流動性。未來股市波動可能還會不斷上演。你準備好了嗎？
美聯儲行動勝于言語。美聯儲點陣圖顯示2023年加息兩次，暗示其認為通脹絕不是暫時的。美股和黃金大跌，國債收益率和美元大漲。通脹的長期存在將改變以往低利率、低通脹的投資環境，成長股將跑輸價值股。
Both A-share and HK stocks continued to fall on Tuesday. The group-holding stocks fell the most. Chinext Index fell 4.2%. The news that National Reserve Bureau would release its stocks of copper, aluminum and zinc continued to pressure thecommodity stocks. The industrial value-added, retail sales and fixed asset investment data in May came in lower than expected. The pandemic has impacted the willingness of business owners’ to invest in new capacity and to hire more people. The negative impact ultimately showed up in consumption. That’s why consumption has continuously fallen short of expectation since the pandemic.
How to look at rational speculation? That the institutional investors who should stick to value investment principles speculate in the stock market is called rational speculation. While it is understandable to do so as A-share is pretty volatile, it is misleading to label the behavior as value investment. As the institutional investors have big capital advantages it is a question whether they manipulate stock market by rational speculation. To stick to value investment, one should look for those stocks with low valuation and good fundamentals. With credit cycle going down the growth stocks’ valuation would be pressured and value stocks would perform well. With the liquidity being taken back the stock market would fluctuate more. Be prepared for that.
The Federal Reserve’s action speaks louder than words. The Fed dot plot chart indicated that Fed expects two rate hikes before the end of 2023. Also the Fed raised its inflation forecast up by 1 percentage point to 3.4% in 2021. The Fed’s move showed that they are expecting a higher and lasting inflation rather than temporary. The US stocks and gold fell sharply while the treasury yield and the US dollar rose. We have indicated that the low-interest rate and low inflation investment environment has changed to high-interest rate and high inflation one. In this circumstance value stocks outperform growth stocks.
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