A股和港股均下跌。A股申萬28個行業中僅3個上漲，分別為電子、汽車和國防軍工，25個下跌的行業中，休閑服務、有色金屬和鋼鐵跌幅居前。港股12個綜合行業中只有非必需消費和工業行業上漲，其余10個行業下跌，其中原材料和醫療保健跌幅居前。北上資金凈流出51.5億人民幣，南下資金凈流出4億港幣。一方面有報道國儲擬拋售儲備銅給下游終端企業，并將持續到年底，導致有色金屬行業大幅調整；另一方面，前期漲幅較大的板塊面臨獲利資金了解的壓力。
下半年經濟會滯漲嗎？我們認為全球經濟不會是滯漲的走勢，因為發達國家3、4季度還會因為疫情解除而導致經濟脈沖向上。考慮到美國老百姓手里巨額的現金，美國經濟甚至有過熱的可能。歐洲經濟也不會差，最新結束的歐央行會議維持當前債券購買規模，顯示政策對歐元區經濟的支持將會持續。中國當前處在經濟周期的頂部因而類似滯漲。但因為目前僅僅是生產領域的通脹，其傳導到消費領域至少需要半年的時間，因此，也只是類滯漲。上世紀70年代美國的滯漲一方面是制造業優勢不再，另一方面第三次工業革命到了停滯階段，疊加美聯儲在60年代不斷放水，導致貨幣供應量大增，同時因為石油危機，造成石油價格飆升。大放水下通脹預期抬升造成工資成本螺旋式上漲導致通脹持續上升。因此，滯漲不是想來就來的，它的發生也需要天時、地利和人和。美聯儲從2008年全球金融危機發生后大放水直至2013年開始回收流動性。但到2020年新冠危機發生之前雖加息十次，聯邦基金利率從0.25%上升到2.25%，對照2008年全球金融危機發生之前的3-5%。美聯儲縮減了資產負債表從4萬多億美金縮減到3.3萬億左右，而金融危機發生之前為8000億的水平。新冠危機之后的放水更是史無前例，美聯儲資產負債表擴大到6萬多億。從流動性角度，跟上世紀70年代有點像。但商品是否短缺以及經濟增速會否下行，可能需要我們邊走邊看。
美股高位回落。聯儲議息會議前投資者態度謹慎。美國5月零售銷售月率實際公布為-1.30%，預期為-0.7%。
Both A-share and HK stocks fell on Monday. Due to that the National Reserve Bureau will release its stocks of copper, aluminum and zinc, the commodity stocks fell sharply.
Will the stagnation come again in 2H2021? The probability of stagnation in 2H2021 is low.Economies in developed countries would continue to recover given that most of the adults would be vaccinated in 3Q or 4Q this year. The recent data showed that entertainment and traveling demand has gone up quickly. In China while economic growth might slow down gradually in 2H2021, the inflation pressure is only in producer’s side. The consumer-side inflation is still yet to come. And it takes at least 6 months for inflation to transfer from producer’s side to consumer side. So China will not see stagnation either. Stagnation came up in the 1970’s due to multiple factors. Firstly, the Federal Reserve had injected big liquidity into the financial markets again and again. So the liquidity was quite abundant if not excessive. Secondly, the US was losing its competitive advantages in manufacturing and was faced with challenges to look for growth in economy. Thirdly, the oil crises led to oil and other related commodities shortage. Inflation expectation was pushed up by wage-cost spiral rise. The Federal Reserve injected liquidity after 2008 global financial crises and began to take back in the mid-2013. Before COVID-19 crises, it had raised interest rate for 10 times and brought Fed fund rate from 0.25% to the highest level 3.25%. This compared with 3-5% before 2008 financial crises. It also reduced its balance sheet from more than US$ 4 trillion to US$3.3 trillion. But before the financial crises, its balance sheet was only US$ 800 billion. We deem that liquidity abundance was comparable to that in the 1970’s. Let’s observe how the economy will evolve and whether there would be commodity shortage in 2H2021.
The US stocks fell on Monday. Tech stocks fell the most as market was nervous before the Federal Reserve Open Market Conference.
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