周二A股和港股均下跌。A股食品飲料板塊下跌4.2%, 為跌幅最大的行業(yè)，其次是有色金屬和化工；而國防軍工和汽車行業(yè)領(lǐng)漲。近期，A股一些熱門板塊不斷調(diào)整，對投資情緒有較大打擊。港股12個綜合行業(yè)3個上漲，9個下跌。其中地產(chǎn)建筑、金融和公用事業(yè)上漲，原材料和綜合行業(yè)領(lǐng)跌。北上資金凈流入3億人民幣，南下資金繼續(xù)凈流出,凈流出金額為16.6億港幣。
靠信仰支撐的股價遲早會下跌。A股有些板塊就是靠信仰來支撐的。之所以這么說是因為在估值高達幾十倍、上百倍市盈率的時候還有人認(rèn)為這是價值投資。這其實不是對價值投資的信仰，而是對投機的信仰。這些板塊的調(diào)整也不是意料之外，而是情理之中。稍微有點常識的人都會知道，任何公司的盈利都不可能長期保持高增速，更不用說100%的利潤增速了。如果能夠這樣，人類早就可以移民火星了。正是因為我們還在地球上，人類的認(rèn)知還停留在常識層面，價值投資就是長期投資最好的方法。企業(yè)的估值水平要對應(yīng)其盈利增速。而這個盈利增速應(yīng)該是中長期的盈利增速，而不是一兩年的盈利增速。2008年全球金融危機以來，因為宏觀經(jīng)濟增長乏力，股市對成長的稀缺性給予了很高的估值溢價。當(dāng)然，對于趨勢投資者而言，這些都不是重點。重點是短期股價有沒有很強的上漲動力，這個動力可以來自各個方面：政策面、資金面和企業(yè)的短期盈利增速。A股市場趨勢投資者眾多，大家對一些板塊的認(rèn)知很容易達成一致推動板塊上漲。趨勢的終止也往往是由多種因素推動的，業(yè)績不達預(yù)期、實控人減持以及資金面收緊等。趨勢一旦失去了動力，股價下跌也是很凌厲的。年初以來，我們看到各種熱門股在短時間內(nèi)被腰斬，就是因為趨勢投資者迅速拋棄這類股票造成的。對投機的信仰當(dāng)然可以有，不過，要提防的是股價上漲容易，下跌更容易。
美股科技股繼續(xù)上漲。因美國疾控中心放松對61個國家的旅游限制，航空股上漲。美國4月份的空缺職位數(shù)達到930萬，繼3月之后再度創(chuàng)出2000年以來的新高。美經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇持續(xù)，關(guān)注下周美聯(lián)儲的議息會議。
On Tuesday bothA-share rose and HK stocks fell. Spirits stocks in A-share dropped sharply andwas the worst-performing sector. In HK market raw material and conglomeratessector fell the most while property and financials rose the most. North-bound capitalsaw net outflow of RMB 300 million. South-bound capital saw net outflow of HK$ 1.66billion, the second-day net outflow in a row.
Those stocks supported by pure belief are doomed to fall. In stock markets there are some stocks and sectors whose prices are purely supported by the belief that they would go up. These stocks are doomed to fall sooner or later. It sounds absurd that buying a stock whose price-to-earnings ratio above 100x is based on the principles of value investment. Common sense tells us that a company can grow its earnings at 100% for a couple of years but not for a long time. If a company can grow earnings at 100% per annum for years, the world would change dramatically and human could even live in the Mars. From the 2009 global financial crises, the world economy grew at low rates for years. Investors hence provided high premium to growth stocks as growth becomes scarcity. Another reason is that there are a lot of trend-followers in the stock markets. They only chase those stocks with possible catalysts from policy, sector and fundamentals.The stock prices would rise very fast when investors reach a consensus. But they would fall quickly as well when the catalysts disappear or negative catalysts come up. Year-to-date a lot of hot stocks have witnessed their prices to behalved due to that their earnings are disappointed, policy changes or liquidity crunch. Speculation is a reasonable way to make money in the stock market. Yet it is worth reminding that speculation has its own risks. Value investment has proved to be more resilient. Picking stocks from common sense is a good way to defend the market turbulence.
The US stocks were mixed. Tech stocks continued to rise as 10-year treasury yield fell. The US job openings in April reached a new high from 2000.
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