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周一A股上漲，港股下跌。A股和港股并未受到上周五美股上漲的影響，開盤下跌。A股因為本周有巨額解禁以及周末宣布的部分上市公司大股東減持的消息而承壓，港股則因為廣州疫情擴散的影響而下跌。北上和南下資金分別凈流出39.7億人民幣和14.5億港幣。5月以美元計價的出口金額同比增速為27.9%，低于市場預期，概因廣州和深圳疫情對港口處理貨物的能力造成影響。疫情偶發不斷，對經濟的負面影響也持續存在，這在一定程度上也擾亂了經濟自身的周期性規律。未來經濟的好轉需要疫情完全處于控制之下，而這需要疫苗接種率達到80%的水平，我國可能年底前才可能做到。

高通脹將擠破資產泡沫。通脹在股票市場已經到了讓人談虎色變的程度。但通脹并非一無是處。在經濟復蘇階段，通脹上升其實反應旺盛的需求。一般而言，3%以下的通脹水平是溫和的，可以接受的。就如同美國財政部長耶倫所說，過去10多年來，美聯儲一直在與通縮對抗，通脹的到來有利于美國經濟。超過3%的通脹一般被視為惡性通貨膨脹。惡性通貨膨脹通常會擾亂正常的經濟運行秩序，抑制消費，同時引發收入分配的不均衡。所以，各國政府都會打壓惡性通貨膨脹。美國4月消費者價格指數為4.2%，已經達到惡性通貨膨脹的區間。4月個人消費支出物價指數（PCE）同比上漲3.58%，而核心PCE上漲3.06%，連續4個月超出市場預期，也超過了美聯儲設定的2%的通脹目標。本周將發布5月份的通脹數據，如超出預期，對美聯儲的寬松貨幣政策將會構成一定程度的壓力。通脹的上漲通常伴隨著利率的上升，而利率上升對高估值股票會構成壓力。上世紀70年代的漂亮50泡沫破裂后，其估值從高達90多倍下跌到10多倍，其中一個重要因素就是通脹上升導致利率上升，從而刺穿了估值的泡沫。所以，高估值的股票有較大風險。此輪經濟復蘇過程中通脹到底漲到什么水平以及利率能夠上到多高是未知的。但歷史經驗看，任何泡沫都會破滅,只是何時破滅無法確定。

美股科技股上漲，周期股回落。聯儲議息會議前市場謹慎。G7會議決定全球征收15% 的最低所得稅率打擊大型科技股，因其當前繳納稅率低于15%。

On Monday A-share rose while HK stocks fell.  In A-share some high-valued stocks announced that major shareholders will sell stocks. In HK market the pandemic in Guangdong Province caused market concern on economic recovery. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 3.97 billion and HK$ 1.45 billion respectively.

The high inflation would cause the asset bubble to burst.  Inflation has become the top concern for investors worldwide. Yet when economy is recovering inflation actually reflects strong demand. And if inflation is below 3% it is acceptable. As Yellen, the Ministry of Finance in the US, said on Monday that inflation is good for the US economy. After all, the Federal Reserve of the US fought with deflation over the last decade in vain. But if inflation is above 4% it is called hyperinflation and is usually considered as vicious. Governments would take measures to fight the hyperinflation as it would cause disorder of economy including pressing demand and unfair income allocation. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.2% year-on-year (yoy) in April into the hyperinflation levels. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), an inflation benchmark that Fed follows, rose 3.58% yoy andcore PCE rose 3.06% yoy in April. Both are higher than the 2% target set by Fed.Next week CPI in May would be released. If that’s higher than market expected,the Fed is under pressure to take back liquidity. High inflation usually drives up interest rate, which would cause stock valuation to fall. A case in point is the Nifty-Fifty in the 1970s, when the hyperinflation caused interest rate to fly and the Nifty-Fifty’s valuation to fall from 90x price-to-earnings ratio （PE） to 10x PE in ten years. We don’t know how high the inflation would rise ultimately as well as the interest rate. But high-valued stocks would come under pressure with the inflation and interest rate going up. Bubbles will burst for sure with the interest rate climbing.  

Tech stocks rose while cyclical sectors fell in the US.  Market is cautious ahead of the Fed meeting next week. 

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