上周（下周）全球主要指數(shù)漲多跌少。資源國指數(shù)漲幅領先，巴西、俄羅斯和澳大利亞分別上漲3.6%、2.6%和1.7%，位居全球16個主要國家和地區(qū)指數(shù)漲幅前三名。只有上證指數(shù)、恒生指數(shù)和日經(jīng)指數(shù)下跌，分別下跌0.2%、0.7%和0.7%。A股和港股年初以來漲幅落后全球其他主要國家和地區(qū)指數(shù)，A股主要受到流動性回收的影響，而港股主要受到疫情的沖擊，但港股表現(xiàn)總體好于A股。A股申萬28個行業(yè)中17個上漲，11個下跌，化工、通信和采掘領漲，而休閑服務、家用電器和休閑服務領跌；港股12個綜合行業(yè)4個上漲，8個下跌。其中科技、醫(yī)療保健和能源行業(yè)上漲，而原材料、金融和公用事業(yè)跌幅領先。北上資金凈流入89億人民幣，南下資金凈流入43.7億港幣。北上和南下凈流入金額較前一周均有所減少。
非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)再度不及預期。5月非農(nóng)就業(yè)人數(shù)仍然低于市場預期，這是在4月份之后連續(xù)第二月低于市場預期。而且低于預期的原因也都是一樣的：首先是疫情期間發(fā)放的救濟金太好，美國人連工作的動力都沒有了；其次，學校還沒開學，需要大人在家里面看孩子；最后，還有很多人覺得疫情還沒控制住，不想冒著風險去工作。這三個因素可能都需要時間來解決。對于救濟金過高的問題，美國目前已經(jīng)有25個州選擇停止發(fā)放州政府的失業(yè)救濟金，而聯(lián)邦政府的失業(yè)救濟金需要等到9月份才能停止發(fā)放。而學校也需要等到9月份才能開學，屆時家長們才可能出來找工作。最后，預計美國到秋季可以實現(xiàn)疫苗接種覆蓋所有成年人，疫情也能夠得到有力控制。5月非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)再度低于預期，有可能會延遲美聯(lián)儲縮減債券購買計劃的時機，因為美聯(lián)儲將就業(yè)視為主要的政策目標，即使下周公布的消費者價格指數(shù)漲幅超出預期，也不會促使其回收流動性。5月非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)對美元構(gòu)成壓力，預計美元近期將走弱。人民幣可能還會面臨一定的升值壓力，有利于A股。而美元走弱，有利于港股，具體請參見我們2020年12月發(fā)表在楓瑞視點微信公眾號上的文章港股明年大概率跑贏A股。
美股上周五上漲。FAANG股票領漲，國債收益率走低。
Most of the global major indexes rose last week (the same below). Commodity countries including Russia, Brazil and Australia saw their indexes rally. A-share fell while HK stocks rose slightly and both lagged behind other major indexes. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 8.9 billion and HK$ 437 million. Both were lower than the net inflow in previous week.
Non-farm payrolls in May came in lower than expected. The reasons include that enhanced employment benefits have made it harder for employers to fill low-paying jobs, working parents continue to struggle with child care, and some workers are sitting out because of the pandemic concerns. Now 25 states have opted out of enhanced unemployment insurance payments ahead of the federal expiration, which would come in September. In September schools will reopen and parents can go out to look for jobs. Moreover, by September all of the adults in the US should be vaccinated fully, meaning that the pandemic could be under well control. But before that non-farm payrolls might continue to come in short of expectation despite the strong demand of workers. Market believed that Fed would delay its tapering plan due to the lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls data. Despite that Consumer Price Index in May, which would be released this week, might come in higher than expected, Fed would not take back liquidity as it takes full employment as the primary policy target. Because of the lower-than-expected non-farm payrolls the US dollar weakened while 10-year Treasury yield fell. The weakening US dollar is beneficial to both A-share and HK stocks. The RMB might face appreciation pressure again. The weakening US dollar is good for HK stocks as analyzed in “The HK market could outperform A-share in 2021” published in official wechat--Maple Insights in Dec. 2020.
The US stocks rallied last Friday. Big tech companies—FAANG stocks rose the most as treasury yield fell.
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