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周四A股和港股繼續(xù)下跌。A股融資余額連續(xù)兩日超過(guò)1.7萬(wàn)億人民幣（下同），上次融資余額超過(guò)1.7萬(wàn)億是2015年4-6月，即股災(zāi)發(fā)生之前。2015年6月融資余額達(dá)到歷史最高點(diǎn)2.07萬(wàn)億。2015年從年初到4月僅僅幾個(gè)月融資余額就從1萬(wàn)億上漲到1.7萬(wàn)億，而今年年初以來(lái)融資余額就在1.6-1.7萬(wàn)億之間，上漲速度較平穩(wěn)，應(yīng)不會(huì)造成像2015年那樣一旦流動(dòng)性收緊股市大幅調(diào)整的影響。周四A股28個(gè)行業(yè)中11個(gè)上漲，17個(gè)下跌。其中電信、鋼鐵和采掘行業(yè)領(lǐng)漲，而電氣、軍工和家用電器領(lǐng)跌。港股主要指數(shù)下跌均在1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)左右，恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)全線下跌，原材料和科技行業(yè)跌幅居前。北上和南下資金凈流入分別為15.2億人民幣和4.4億港幣。

中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍在擴(kuò)張區(qū)間。6月1日公布的5月財(cái)新中國(guó)制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)（PMI）錄得52，較4月微升0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，為2021年以來(lái)最高。5月財(cái)新中國(guó)通用服務(wù)業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)指數(shù)（服務(wù)業(yè)PMI）錄得55.1，較4月的高點(diǎn)56.3有所下滑，但仍超過(guò)50，服務(wù)行業(yè)已連續(xù)13個(gè)月在擴(kuò)張區(qū)間。支撐5月經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)擴(kuò)張的因素是銷售持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。調(diào)查樣本企業(yè)反映，中國(guó)成功遏制疫情，客戶需求得以繼續(xù)復(fù)蘇；同時(shí)，還有企業(yè)提到新產(chǎn)品問(wèn)世促進(jìn)了銷售。財(cái)新PMI主要衡量的是中小企業(yè)以及私營(yíng)企業(yè)的狀況，而中國(guó)官方PMI主要是衡量大型企業(yè)和國(guó)有企業(yè)的狀況。5月份中國(guó)官方制造業(yè)和非制造業(yè)PMI也都在擴(kuò)張區(qū)間。但是無(wú)論是官方還是財(cái)新PMI都顯示外需訂單的回落。未來(lái)外貿(mào)出口能否在內(nèi)需回落的情況下支撐中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)需要觀察。美國(guó)小非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)超預(yù)期。美國(guó)自動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)處理公司自動(dòng)發(fā)布的私營(yíng)部門就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)被稱為“小非農(nóng)”，一般在每月第一周的周三發(fā)布，而非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)在每月第一周的周五發(fā)布。因此，小非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)常常被視為對(duì)非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)的一個(gè)指引。但事實(shí)上二者有時(shí)候差異巨大。五月小非農(nóng)顯示美國(guó)私營(yíng)部門就業(yè)增加了978,000，較4月份的654,000大幅上漲，為2020年6月以來(lái)的最大增幅。受此消息刺激，美元指數(shù)上漲至90以上，同時(shí)黃金等貴金屬和銅等工業(yè)金屬價(jià)格大幅下挫。美股開(kāi)盤大跌，但隨后反彈。截止收盤道指和標(biāo)普500小幅下跌，而納指跌幅較大。周五將發(fā)布的非農(nóng)就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)將會(huì)對(duì)市場(chǎng)走向產(chǎn)生重要影響。

Both A-share and HK stocks continued to fall on Thursday. The financing balance ofA-share in total reached above RMB 1.7 trillion, which caused some concerns among investors. Last time the financing balance above RMB 1.7 trillion was during April to June in 2015, just before the big crash of A-share. However, in 2015 the financing balance rose from RMB 1 trillion to RMB 1.7 trillion in only a few months. This time the financing balance grew gradually year-to-date and we believe it would not cause big turbulence in the market. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 1.52 billion and HK$ 440 million.

China economy is still expanding but export demand is weakening. Caixin manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) was 52, the highest reading year-to-date.Caixin service PMI in May was 55.1, down from 56.3 in April but still above 50,which is the threshold for expansion. Caixin service PMI has remained above 50 for 13 months in a row. The earlier released official manufacturing and service PMI showed that China’s economy is expanding. Yet both official and Caixin PMI revealed that export demand is dwindling. Whether the export demand can make up the slowing domestic demand is the key to China’s economic growth in 2021.

ADP data boosted the USdollar. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Company released jobs data, showing that the US economy added a total of 978,000 jobs in May. This is the biggest monthly increase since June 2020. The US dollar went strong at this news and gold and metals dropped sharply. Dow and SP 500 fell slightly while Nasdaq fell more than 1%. Market focus is on the non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday. If the data is better than expected Fed would begin to taper very soon. ADP measures the employment situation in private sectors while non-farm payroll measures the employment in both public and private sectors. ADP data is usually taken as a bellweather of non-farm payroll. But sometimes these two sets of data diverge.

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