周三A股下跌。因原油價格創(chuàng)出疫情以來的新高加劇市場對通脹的擔憂，而人民幣連續(xù)兩日貶值，疊加部分抱團股創(chuàng)出歷史新高資金有獲利了解的需求。A股主要指數(shù)均下跌接近或超過一個百分點。申萬28個行業(yè)中7個上漲，均是估值較低的行業(yè)，領漲的包括綜合、農(nóng)林牧漁和采掘。港股在A股帶動下也下跌，恒生科技指數(shù)跌幅接近一個百分點，恒生指數(shù)和國企指數(shù)跌幅分別在0.58%和0.36%。恒生12個綜合行業(yè)中4個上漲，1個持平，7個下跌，其中能源、綜合和公用事業(yè)漲幅居前，而醫(yī)療保健、原材料和工業(yè)領跌。北上資金凈流出20.1億人民幣，南下資金凈流入6.8億港幣。
我國居民將會增加海外資產(chǎn)配置比例。周三收盤后，媒體報道國家外匯管理局近日向17家機構發(fā)放QDII額度合計103億美金。截止2019年，中國居民總資產(chǎn)達到552萬億人民幣。根據(jù)人民銀行2019年的調(diào)查，中國城鎮(zhèn)居民資產(chǎn)中近59%為住房，遠高于美國的21%，日本24%和歐洲的35%；股票基金類資產(chǎn)在總資產(chǎn)中的占比不到2%，遠低于發(fā)達國家的水平。2019年，中國人均GDP超過1萬美元。按照購買力平價調(diào)整，相當于日本1970年代中期，即日本居民資產(chǎn)中不動產(chǎn)占比達到峰值的時期。未來隨著居民收入水平的提升，不動產(chǎn)配置比例將會下降，而金融資產(chǎn)的配置比例將會提升。另一方面，我國居民配置海外資產(chǎn)的比例也相對較低。據(jù)估算，2020年中國個人境外資產(chǎn)配置比例為9.4%，而發(fā)達國家居民海外資產(chǎn)配置比例約為15%。發(fā)放QDII外匯額度，鼓勵資金出海無疑會增加老百姓配置海外金融資產(chǎn)的渠道，同時也有利于減輕人民幣升值壓力，可謂一舉多得。有投資人擔心這對A股構成利空。我們認為聰明的資金總是尋找性價比高的資產(chǎn)。如A股中有性價比高的股票，資金也會配置，比如一些中小盤個股。港股中80%的上市公司為國內(nèi)公司，對國內(nèi)投資人而言更易于了解和接受，同時估值水平也比A股低，相比其他海外市場應該更受益于資金出海。
美股小幅上漲。 布倫特原油期貨價格漲至2020年初以來新高。
Both A-share and HK stocks fell on Tuesday. RMB depreciated for two days in a row and north-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 2 billion. Some group-holding stocks‘ prices have reached historical highs and investors took profit by selling them.
Chinese residents will increase their overseas equity investment. It was reported that State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a total of US$10.6 billion to 17 Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors (QDII) both at home and aboard. By 2019 Chinese residents have accumulated assets at RMB 55.2 billion. According to the People’s Bank of China 59% of the assets was in property, much higher than the percentage in the US, Europe and Japan which was 21%,24% and 35% respectively. But assets in stocks and funds were less than 2%,much lower than that in the developed nations. Currently China’s per capita GDP is US$1 trillion, which is comparable to Japan in the 1970’s when the percentage of property held by Japanese residents in total assets reached the peak level. With the personal income increasing gradually going forward, Chinese residents wouldput more money into financial tools, particularly in equity. On the other hand,Chinese residents’ overseas investment was only 9.4% in 2020 compared with 15% of those in developed countries. Issuing foreign exchange quota to QDII would not only allow Chinese residents to put more money into overseas financial markets, hence increasing the percentage of stocks and funds in their total assets, but also mitigate the appreciation pressure of RMB. Some investors worry about the negative impact on A-share. But smart money would invest based on value for money. Some small- and medium-cap stocks have more upside potential in our view. HK stocks would benefit more from Chinese residents’ overseas investment as they have lower valuations than A-share and most of the companies listed are Chinese local companies.
The US stocks rose slightly on Tuesday. Brent oil futures rose to the highest levels from Jan.2020.
聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產(chǎn)管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產(chǎn)”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權，授權上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司轉(zhuǎn)載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產(chǎn)不對任何人因使用本文中的內(nèi)容所引發(fā)的損失負任何責任。未經(jīng)楓瑞資產(chǎn)書面授權，本文中的內(nèi)容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產(chǎn)版權的方式使用和轉(zhuǎn)載。市場有風險，投資需謹慎。
免費咨詢電話：0757-2833-3269 或 131-0659-0746
公司名稱：上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司 HESS Capital, LLC
公司地址：廣東省佛山市順德區(qū)天虹路46號信保廣場南塔808
Copyright 2014-2020 上海海獅資產(chǎn)管理有限公司版權所有
滬ICP備2020029404號-1
