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周二A股指數(shù)漲跌不一。上證指數(shù)小幅上漲，創(chuàng)業(yè)板指小幅下跌，科創(chuàng)50則上漲超過1個百分點(diǎn)，創(chuàng)出4個月新高。申萬28個行業(yè)中20個上漲，其中采掘、化工和紡織服裝領(lǐng)漲，而非銀金融、電器設(shè)備和銀行跌幅領(lǐng)先。人民銀行擬上調(diào)外匯存款準(zhǔn)備金率對人民幣匯率構(gòu)成沖擊，人民幣升值趨勢暫緩。港股恒生12個綜合行業(yè)中7個上漲，其中科技、能源和非必需性消費(fèi)漲幅居前，而必需消費(fèi)、綜合和原材料行業(yè)領(lǐng)跌。北上資金凈流入11億人民幣，南下資金凈流入52.9億港幣。A股和港股六月第一個交易日可以視為開門紅。五月不窮，六月是否“絕”有待觀察。

通脹很可能不是暫時性的。通脹有三種類型，一種是需求拉動型，一種是成本推動性，最后一種是供應(yīng)短缺造成的通脹。所有的通脹最后都會走向滯漲。美國上世紀(jì)70年代的滯漲就是一系列通脹最終的結(jié)果。我們判斷如果此次通脹超預(yù)期，很有可能是上述三種類型通脹的組合。美國大型連鎖超市開市客的首席財務(wù)官在2021年1季度業(yè)績發(fā)布的電話會議上指出芯片短缺影響經(jīng)濟(jì)的各個環(huán)節(jié)，造成通脹壓力。同時，通脹壓力還來自于集裝箱的短缺和運(yùn)輸成本的上升，上升的勞動力成本，各種商品的短缺以及上升的大宗商品價格。他特別提到的商品包括牛肉、紙制品和鋁箔。2021年4月美國個人消費(fèi)支出指數(shù)，這是美聯(lián)儲跟蹤通脹的重要指標(biāo)，同比上漲3.1%，超預(yù)期。同時4月份的消費(fèi)者價格指數(shù)同比上漲4.2%，為2008年9月以來的最高月度漲幅。高盛分析師認(rèn)為供應(yīng)短缺導(dǎo)致的通脹在秋季有可能消失，因?yàn)橐咔榇蠓徑庵蠊?yīng)鏈也將會隨之修復(fù)。長期而言，通脹是否能夠持續(xù)取決于經(jīng)濟(jì)是否過熱，就業(yè)超過長期潛在水平。高盛近期大幅上調(diào)6月消費(fèi)者價格指數(shù)上漲幅度到3.6%，全年預(yù)計在3.5%。美聯(lián)儲官員在近期的講話中一再強(qiáng)調(diào)他們認(rèn)為通脹只會持續(xù)幾個月。當(dāng)然如果他們發(fā)現(xiàn)通脹不是暫時性的，他們也會采取行動。一些投資人賭注美聯(lián)儲的判斷是錯誤的。如果通脹不是暫時性的，也許意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)高增長也不是暫時性的。

美股復(fù)蘇股上漲，科技股下跌。數(shù)據(jù)顯示勞動力短缺推升通脹。

Most of the major indexes in both A-share and HK market rose on Monday.RMB appreciation trend paused as the People’s Bank of China announced that they would raise the foreign exchange reserve ratio. North-bound capital still registered net inflow of HK$1.1 billion.

The inflation might not be transient. There are three types of inflation. The first one is demand-driven. The second type is cost-driven and the third one is caused by supply shortage. The CFO of Costco told analysts in its 1Q2021 earnings call held recently that there had been and were a variety of inflationary pressures. Inflationary factors abound. These include higher labor costs, higher freight costs, higher transportation demand,along with the container shortage and port delays, increased demand in various product categories, various shortages of everything from chips to oils and chemical supplies by facilities hit by the Gulf freeze and storms and, in some cases, higher commodity prices. He mentioned particular inflationary pressure in beef, paper goods and aluminum foil. Goldman Sachs economist believed that worker and auto shortage were probably going to be much less of a factor once into the fall. But in the short-term, it is an upside risk. Longer term, the key questions are whether the economy is going to overheat and to move far beyond the potential long-term sustainable level of household unemployment. If that were the case, then investors would have to be more worried about inflation. But they don't really expect that. Both CPI and Personal consumption expenditure in April came in higher than expected. While Fed has reiterated that inflation would only last several months, markets are betting that they could be wrong. If inflation is not transient, the high growth rate of economy will persist as well.

The US stocks mixed on Monday. Reopening stocks rose while tech stocks fell. The ISM PMI in May showed that labor shortage was pushing up inflation.

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