周一A股和港股均上漲。A股申萬28個行業中20個上漲，其中電氣設備、國防軍工和有色金屬行業漲幅領先，而休閑服務、家用電器和交通運輸行業跌幅領先。港股恒生12個綜合行業中5個上漲，其中醫療保健、科技和必需消費業漲幅居前，而公用事業、綜合和金融領跌。北上資金凈流入52.1億人民幣，南下資金凈流出9.5億港幣。
5月PMI和三孩政策。5月官方制造業采購經理人指數顯示經濟仍處在擴張階段，但外需有所走弱，可能是國外疫情緩解導致當地產能提升造成對國內產品的擠出效應。三孩政策出臺推動了A股和港股的相關股票上漲。據人口專家估算，三孩政策將會使明年出生人口增加不到100萬，有利于阻止出生人口持續下滑的局面。但從西方國家的經驗看，當人口總和出生率下降后，鼓勵生育政策很難在短期內取得明顯成效。
抱團股上漲和人民幣升值。央行31日發布公告稱，為加強金融機構外匯流動性管理，中國人民銀行決定，自2021年6月15日起，上調金融機構外匯存款準備金率2個百分點，即外匯存款準備金率由現行的5%提高到7%。上周，人民幣對美元匯率中間價累計升值442點，幅度0.69%，創近20周最大單周升值幅度。截至2021年4月底，金融機構外匯存款余額為1萬億美金，上調2個百分點可凍結200億美金的外匯存款。外匯占款是我國基礎貨幣發行的渠道之一。近期，銀行間流動性寬松，市場對央行政策的轉向擔憂基本消失。我們認為央行的政策導向仍然沒有變，但由于人民幣升值導致外資涌入，造成外匯占款上升，而央行不得不在外匯占款的基礎上發行基礎貨幣，對國內市場提供了流動性。國內流動性充裕的條件下，估值高的抱團股再度卷土重來。個別股票已經創出歷史新高。抱團股的炒作是否能夠持續與流動性緊密相關。央行在對外匯流動性管理后，國內市場的流動性也將受到一定的影響。同時，未來不排除央行出手對國內流動性進行管理。純粹拉估值的狂歡也將會戛然而止。
美股上漲。經合組織上調今明兩年全球經濟增長到5.8%和4.4%。
Both A-share and HK stocks rose on Monday. 20 out of 28 sectors rose in A-share with electric equipment,military and defense and non-ferrous metal rising the most. Leisure service, home appliance and transportation fell the most. The pandemic surged in Guangzhou caused investors to dump airlines and railway stocks. 5 out of 12 sectors in HK rose. Healthcare, tech and discretionary consumption rose the most and tech, conglomerates and financial fell the most. North-bound capital net inflow was RMB 5.21 billion. South-bound capital net outflow was HK$950 million.
The rise of group-holding stocks and RMB appreciation. The funds outstanding for foreign exchange is one of the channels to issue base money for the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). With the appreciation of RMB over the last two months, PBOC had to inject liquidity into the market. This is the major reason that liquidity in interbank lending market has been abundant recently.Market thought that PBOC was not U-turning from its easing monetary policy. As a result, the high-valued group-holding stocks rallied and some of them have seen stock prices reach a historical high. On Monday PBOC announced that it would raise foreign exchange reserve ratio from 5% to 7% from June 15th with a purpose to restrain the fast appreciation of RMB. As the end of April therewas a total of US$ 1 trillion foreign exchange in f inancial institutions’ accounts. This measure would therefore freeze US$2 million foreign exchange,which would affect domestic liquidity as well. PBOC might manage domestic liquidity if there is a risk of asset bubble, as it did in February this year. The carnival of group-holding stocks might come to an abrupt end by then. Remember to leave the dancing floor earlier.
The US stocks rose. OECD raised global economic growth rate for this year and 2022 from 5.6% and 4% to 5.8% and 4.4%. The new cases of COVID-19 in the US dropped to the lowest level since March 2020.
聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權，授權上海海獅資產管理有限公司轉載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產不對任何人因使用本文中的內容所引發的損失負任何責任。未經楓瑞資產書面授權，本文中的內容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產版權的方式使用和轉載。市場有風險，投資需謹慎。
免費咨詢電話：0757-2833-3269 或 131-0659-0746
公司名稱：上海海獅資產管理有限公司 HESS Capital, LLC
公司地址：廣東省佛山市順德區天虹路46號信保廣場南塔808
Copyright 2014-2020 上海海獅資產管理有限公司版權所有
滬ICP備2020029404號-1
