周四A股上漲。兩市成交量較前一交易日略降，但仍在9000億以上。申萬28個行業中只有4個下跌，分別為銀行、輕工制造、農林牧漁和建筑裝飾，漲幅居前的行業為電子、通信和機械設備。恒生指數和國企指數微跌，科技指數上漲0.64%。北上資金凈流入146億人民幣，連續三天大額凈流入；南下資金凈流出8.1億港幣，結束了連續十一個交易日的凈流入。人民幣兌美元升值至2018年5月以來的高點--6.3816。
股票是對沖通貨膨脹的有效工具。從1970到2012年，美國股票的年復合收益率為9.4%，而同期的消費者價格指數平均漲幅為4.4%。從1964年到2015年，恒生指數的年復合收益率為11%，而同期消費者價格指數的年平均漲幅為4.46%。因此，無論是發達市場還是新興市場，股票市場的收益率都能夠跑贏通脹。從長期看，股票是對沖通脹的有效工具。上世紀80年代一瓶茅臺的價格只有幾塊錢，現在是2000多元。而茅臺股票從上市時的幾塊錢漲到最高接近3000元。股票能夠有效對沖通貨膨脹是因為股票代表對資產盈利的所有權。當通貨膨脹增加了這些資產的運營成本時，長期來看通過它的盈利能力消化掉。隨著時間推移，股票價格以及盈利和股息能夠與通貨膨脹的上漲速度一致。因此，股票能夠對沖通貨膨脹。但對短期發生的通貨膨脹，很多股票可能不具有這種轉嫁能力。同時，因為擔心央行會通過加息來抑制通脹，這也會導致股票價格下跌。因此，短期股票會受到通貨膨脹的負面影響。短期通貨膨脹最受益的是大宗商品，最受損的是現金。因此，通貨膨脹來臨，或者買點黃金放著，或者投資股市。股市短期可能會下跌，但長期看一定是跑贏通脹的。債券無論短期還是長期都不具有抵御通脹的能力。短期看，債券價格會由于利率上升而下降。長期而言，債券到期收益率通常較低，跑不贏通脹。但債券強于現金，畢竟持有到期還是有一些利息收益的。
美股道指上漲，納指微跌。1季度GDP略增速低于預期，但上周申請失業救濟人數再次創下新冠疫情以來的新低。經濟復蘇股漲幅領先。
On Thursday A-share rose broadly. Trading volume was lower than that on Wednesday but still above RMB900 billion. Only 4 out of 28 sectors fell, which were banks, light industry, fishery and farming and construction and decoration. Electronic,communication and machinery sector rose the most. In HK Hang Seng Index and China Enterprises Index dropped while tech index rose. North-bound capital net inflow remained high at RMB14.6 billion. South-bound capital saw net outflow of HK$810 million, concluding the eleven-day net inflow in a row. RMB continued to appreciate against the US dollar, reaching a new high since May 2018.
Howto protect your fortune in inflation? The US stock delivered compound annualized rate of return (CARR) of 9.4% from 1970 to 2012 while consumer prices increased at 4.4% annually. Hang Seng Index provided CARR of 11% from 1964 to 2015 and consumer prices rose at CARR of 4.46%. Both the US, representing the developed stock markets, and HK market, which can represent the emerging stock markets， show that in the long term stock can beat inflation. The reason is that stock represents partial ownership of assets which can create revenue and profit. In inflation these assets can transfer the inflation to their consumers who buy their products or services. So in the long run stock prices along with their earnings and dividends will rise in step with inflation. But in the short term stocks would be affected by inflation as well. When inflation comes the central banks would raise interest rates. This would cause stock prices to fall. In inflationary environment commodity performs the best and cash performs the poorest. Bond cannot defend inflation whether in the short run or long run. In the short term bond prices would fall sharply once interest rates rise. In the long run bond yields are usually too low to beat inflation. Investors can buy some commodity such as gold or good stocks.
Dow and SP 500 rose. The initial jobless claim last week was the lowest since pandemic. Reopening stocks rallied.
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