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周三A股主要指數(shù)漲跌不一。上證指數(shù)小幅上漲，創(chuàng)業(yè)板指下跌近1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。兩市成交量較前一交易日略降，但仍達(dá)9600億。恒生指數(shù)和科技指數(shù)均上漲近1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，國企指數(shù)上漲0.58%。格力電器發(fā)布回購股份的公告，回購價(jià)格不超過70元，公司當(dāng)前股價(jià)為56元，料回購對其股價(jià)會提供支撐。國常會再次點(diǎn)名大宗商品，鋼鐵期貨價(jià)格大幅回落。北上資金凈流入90億人民幣，南下資金凈流入6.1億港幣，連續(xù)第十一個(gè)交易日保持凈流入。人民幣兌美元升至2018年6月以來的高點(diǎn)，央行對升值的容忍度決定了人民幣升值幅度。人民幣持續(xù)升值，資金將持續(xù)涌入A股和港股市場。

海外疫情有明顯緩解。截止上周六，美國至少接種一劑疫苗的人數(shù)占比達(dá)到47.9%，33個(gè)州全部開放。紐約州在隔離423天后周三宣布開放，紐約州成人完全接種疫苗的比例為45.6%，陽性檢測率下降到1.2%。為了吸引游客，紐約市政府將會來訪者提供免費(fèi)的莫得納和輝瑞疫苗接種。德國、西班牙、意大利和法國各接種一劑人數(shù)占比分別為39.2%、34.3%、33.5%和32%。預(yù)計(jì)到6月中旬，歐洲一半人口將會接種疫苗。歐美公共交通出行人數(shù)已非常接近疫情前的水平，反應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動離完全正?；呀?jīng)不遠(yuǎn)了。

寬松貨幣政策何時(shí)退出？隨著歐美國家疫情的緩解，投資人都猜測歐央行和美聯(lián)儲何時(shí)退出寬松貨幣政策。高盛預(yù)測美國的個(gè)人消費(fèi)支出物價(jià)指數(shù)在2021年5月達(dá)到高點(diǎn)2.8%，之后回落，到年底達(dá)到2.25%。高盛預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲在今年下半年開始考慮削減債券購買規(guī)模，在2022年早些時(shí)候?qū)嵭?，而美?lián)儲到等2023年才會加息。海外其他大行并不與高盛的觀點(diǎn)一致，他們認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲可能很快就會討論削減債券購買，加息也將提到2022年。歐洲央行執(zhí)委認(rèn)為現(xiàn)在還不是討論退出債券購買計(jì)劃的時(shí)候，需要關(guān)注6-9個(gè)月經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇以及通脹和通脹預(yù)期的情況。這與美聯(lián)儲內(nèi)部的一些鴿派人士想法類似。

美股微漲。下周一為陣亡將士紀(jì)念日，假期前市場交投清淡

On Wednesday A-share was mixed. Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly while Chinext Index fell close to 1%. The trading volume was RMB 960 billion, slightly lower than thaton Tuesday. Geli Electric Appliances announced stock repurchase after markets closed. This should provide some support to its stock price. The Standing Committee of the State Council talked about commodity prices for the third time in a month.  As a result steel and iron future prices dropped sharply.  HK stocks rose broadly. North-bound capital net inflow was RMB9.1 billion. South-bound capital net inflow was HK$610 million, the eleventh day net inflow in a row.

The overseas pandemic has been relieved quite a lot.  By the end of last Saturday 47.9% of Americans have been vaccinated at least one dose. 33 out of 50 states reopened. The New York state reopened on Wednesday after quarantined for 423 days. Germany, France, Spain and Italy have vaccinated more than 30% of population at least one dose. It is expected that 50% of the European would be fully vaccinated by mid-June. The public transportation levels have come back gradually and are close to the pre-pandemic levels.

When to exit? When the Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) exit from the quantitative easing has become a market focus. Goldman Sachs predicted that the US personal consumption expenditure would reach 2.8% in May and then fall to 2.25% by the end of 2021.It expected Fed to talk about taper in 2H2021 and take actions in early 2022.It does not expect Fed to raise interest rate until 2023. The officials from ECB thought that it would take another 6 to 9 months to observe the economy as well as inflation and inflation expectation before it can decide whether to cut the bond purchase. This view coincides with some officials from the Fed.

The US stocks rose slightly.Next Monday is Memorial Day holiday. Market is usually quiet before the holidays.

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