周一A股小幅上漲，港股小幅下跌。受國家調(diào)控大宗商品價格影響，有色、鋼鐵和煤炭行業(yè)的公司股價都有一定幅度的調(diào)整。市場對大宗商品價格和相關(guān)股票的未來走勢存在較大分歧。歷史上看，大宗商品價格和相關(guān)股價的漲跌幅基本一致。而本輪大宗商品的股價已經(jīng)創(chuàng)下了2008年以來的新高，但股價與2008年相比有很大差距。一方面市場對大宗商品持續(xù)上漲存在較大疑慮；另一方面，新投資人在從業(yè)生涯中只經(jīng)歷了大宗商品價格的持續(xù)下降，沒看到過持續(xù)上漲，因此對大宗商品的股票沒有興趣。但未來投資環(huán)境可能會發(fā)生變化，近幾年發(fā)展起來的投資邏輯可能不適用于未來。
投資環(huán)境發(fā)生變化的一個例子。1958年夏天，歷史上第一次，長期政府債券的收益率明顯超過了普通股的股息收益率。1958年之前，股息收益率超過債券收益率被投資者視為天經(jīng)地義的事情，因為投資股票的風險更大。按照這個標準，每當股息收益率低于債券收益率時，就是股票價格過高因此需要拋售股票的時候了。歷史上1891年、1907年和1929年，都發(fā)生了股息收益率低于債券收益率的情況，當年都發(fā)生了股市的大崩盤。但二戰(zhàn)后，各國紛紛轉(zhuǎn)向紙幣本位制，由此導(dǎo)致的慢性通貨膨脹改變了投資者判斷股票與債券的投資價值標準。股票代表著對真實資產(chǎn)的所有權(quán)，其價格隨著通貨膨脹而上漲。當通貨膨脹不可避免時，股票是對沖通脹的唯一方式。這個例子說明只有在基本的經(jīng)濟與金融環(huán)境保持不變時，價值評估標準才會有效。但是，經(jīng)濟和金融環(huán)境如果發(fā)生變化，則估值標準也將發(fā)生重大變化。2009年金融危機以來，世界經(jīng)濟增速都保持在較低水平，利率和通脹也保持在低位。但我們認為今年的經(jīng)濟和金融環(huán)境將發(fā)生變化。首先經(jīng)濟增速將會高于以往；其次債券的收益率有可能持續(xù)上升；最后，通脹可能不再是遙不可及的。這些變化也將對投資產(chǎn)生重大影響。股票仍是較好的投資選擇，但成長股和價值股表現(xiàn)可能會不同于以往。
美股大漲。新冠新增病例降到去年6月以來的低點。FAANG股票和復(fù)蘇股漲幅領(lǐng)先。因大宗商品價格下跌，市場對通脹擔憂緩解，債券收益率回落。
On Monday A-share rose while HK stocks fell slightly. Dueto that the government took measures to control the commodity prices, the relevant stocks tumbled in both A-share and HK market. It is worth noting that commodity prices have reached or rose above the high in 2008 but the related stock prices lagged far behind. On the one hand market doubts that the commodity prices can rise for a relatively longer time; on the other hand newcomers in the stock market only witness the continuous fall of commodity prices and have never invested in commodity stocks ever. But investment backdrop can change dramatically and investors should prepare themselves for that to come sooner or later.
A case in point of the investment backdrop change. In the summer of 1958 dividend yield of stocks fell below bond yield, which caused alot of panic in the stock market. Prior to 1958 dividend yield of stocks washigher than bond as investors considered stocks riskier than bonds. Every timestock dividend yields were lower than bond yields stock market crashed as what happenedin 1891, 1907 and 1929. After the World War II major nations gave up gold standard and resorted to paper currency standard, the long-term inflation prospects promoted investors to buy stocks as stocks, which represents the partial ownership of a company, can defend the long-term inflation. This case illustrates that valuation matrix works well only when economic and financial conditions remain the same.Once economic and financial conditions change dramatically the previous valuation matrix will not work well. We judge that in 2021 investment backdrop will make some shift. The inflation might come back as well as the higherinterest rate. Remain alert to the signals of changes.
The US stocks rallied. The COVID-19 new cases have fallen to the lowest levels since June 2020. Also with commodity prices falling market was relieved with the inflation pressure. Bond yield fell as well.FAANG stocks and reopening stocks rose the most.
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