上周（下同）全球主要指數多數上漲。在我們跟蹤的全球16個主要國家和地區的指數中，只有4個下跌，分別是道瓊斯、標普500、富時100和上證指數，漲幅居前的是印度、臺灣和恒生指數。印度和臺灣因疫情有所緩解，股市大漲。恒生指數上漲部分因南下資金凈流入增加。A股創業板指和科創50分別上漲2.62%和1.31%，而恒生國企指數和科技指數分別上漲2.86%和6.08%。北上資金凈流入4.8億人民幣，為連續第六周凈流入；南下資金凈流入202.6億港幣，為4月23日以來最大周度凈流入。
A股市場估值差異巨大。靜態市盈率估值最低的是銀行、建筑裝飾、房地產和鋼鐵，靜態市盈率分別為7.5、8.2、8.2和12.3倍；估值最高的是休閑服務、國防軍工、計算機和食品飲料，靜態市盈率分別為83.2、57.3、50.5和48倍。以靜態市凈率衡量，估值最高的是食品飲料、休閑服務、醫藥生物和電子，分別為9.7、8.3、5.1和4.1倍；估值最低的是銀行、建筑裝飾、房地產和鋼鐵，靜態市凈率分別為0.7、0.8、1和1.2倍。我們比較了一只知名食品飲料股與一只建筑裝飾板塊股票。從2000年到2020年，該食品飲料股的凈利潤和經營性凈現金流的年復合增速分別為28.6%和25.4%；而該建筑類公司的凈利潤和經營性凈現金流從2003 到2020年的年復合增速分別為22.7%和17%，增速比該食品飲料公司低5.9和8.4個百分點。從ROE來看，該食品飲料公司ROE高達31%，而該建筑類公司ROE為12%，差異達到20個百分點，主要因為食品飲料公司的毛利率和凈利潤都遠高于該建筑類公司。從估值來看，該食品飲料公司的靜態市盈率為54倍，而該建筑類公司的靜態市盈率僅為4.3倍，其在A股和港股兩地上市，港股的靜態市盈率僅為2.3倍。二者的靜態市凈率分別為14.6和0.6倍，股息率分別為1%和5%。食品飲料公司估值高因為市場計入了遠期成長的空間（具體請參見股票的定價不能建立在遙遠的未來），建筑估值低因市場對遠期前景給予低估值。但過去接近20年的業績復合增速看相差并不太大，這種估值差異是否合理？
美股漲跌不一。四月二手房銷售環比下降2.7%，因供應不足。
Last week (the same below) the majority of global major indexes rose.Among the 16 major indexes worldwide only 4 indexes fell, which were Dow Jones, SP500, FTSE 100 and Shanghai Composite Index. Taiwan Weighted Index, India Sensex Index and Hang Seng Index rose the most as the pandemic in India and Taiwan lessened to some extent. North-bound capital saw six-week net inflow in a row and last week the net inflow was RMB 480 million. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$ 20.26 billion, which was the largest weekly net inflow since April 23rd.
The divergence in A-share. Banks, construction and decoration, property and steel are at the lowest valuation while leisure service,food and beverage, bio-medicine and electronic enjoy the highest valuation. We compared a famous liquor company with a construction company listed in A-share.The liquor company delivered compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.6% and 25.4% in revenue and net profit respectively from 20000 to 2020. The construction company delivered CAGR of 22.7% and 17% respectively in revenue and net profit respectively from 2003 to 2020. While the construction company’s revenue and net profit CAGR was only 5.9 and 8.4 percentage point lower than that of the liquor company, its valuation is much lower than the liquor company.The liquor company’s trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings (TTW PE) is 54x while TTW PE of the construction company is only 4.3x. The construction company is also listed in HK market and is valued at 2.3x TTW PE. The ROE of the liquor company is 31% while that of the construction company is 12% as the liquor company enjoys much higher profit margin than the construction company. The liquor company has priced in the long-term growth potential while the construction company has not. Given that their earnings growth over the last 20+ years does not diverge that much, the valuation divergence seems unjustified.
The US stocks mixed. While Dow Jones andSP 500 fell Nasdaq rose. The existing home sales fell 2.7% in April from Marchas supply was down 20% in April. The housing markets were hot.
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