A股和港股均出人意料的強勢。雖然隔夜海外市場大跌，但上證指數僅下跌0.11%，創業板指上漲接近1個百分點。港股雖盤中跌超過一個百分點，但收盤恒生指數僅下跌0.5%，而國企指數下跌0.11%。A股申萬28個行業中11個上漲，17個下跌,其中家用電器、食品飲料和非銀金融漲幅領先。受國常會討論大宗商品價格上漲問題消息影響，A股和港股的周期股領跌兩市。
為什么如此強勢？上證指數從2月18日下跌，到3月8日下跌幅度達到10.8%，之后一直橫盤整理。同期申萬28個行業中9個行業上漲，19個行業下跌。抱團股所處的行業下跌幅度居前。港股恒生指數從2月18日高點到5月13日的低點也下跌了10.8%，之后小幅反彈。恒生12個綜合行業中只有綜合、公用事業和地產建筑上漲，其余9個行業下跌。其中高估值的科技板塊下跌30%。從2月18日到5月15日，發達國家股指節節攀升。在全球16個主要國家和地區的指數中，深成指、恒生指數和上證指數分別位居漲幅榜從高到低的第16、15和12位，意味著A股和港股熊冠全球。而從估值的角度看，以靜態市凈率看，上證指數和恒生指數分別為1.5倍和1.3倍，位居全球16個主要國家和地區估值從低到高第三和第四位。以靜態市盈率看，上證指數和恒生指數的靜態市盈率分別為14.8和14.3倍,位列全球16個主要國家和地區從低到高的第三和第二名。因此，無論上證指數還是恒生指數都是全球的估值洼地。另一方面，美元指數從1月到3月底走強之后下跌，在5月19日跌破90之后，20日再次跌破90并創出年初以來的新低。美元走軟也意味著資金將會流入新興市場，具體分析請見5月18日發表在楓瑞視點微信公眾號上的美元指數跌破90意味著什么？。我們也認為港股將會在接下來的反彈中跑贏A股，具體分析請參見港股明年大概率跑贏A股。
美股上漲。上周首次申請失業救濟人數為442000人，好于預期，并創出新冠疫情以來的新低。受超預期經濟數據刺激，美股結束三天下跌，科技股大漲。美財政部要求通過比特幣轉賬超過1萬美金需要向國內稅務署報告。比特幣反彈幅度縮減，但仍回到了40000美金的水平。
Both A-share and HK market were unexpectedly resilient.Despite the turbulence in overseas markets overnight Shanghai Composite Index only fell0.11% while Chinext Index rose close to 1%. 11 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose with home appliance, food and beverage and non-bank financials rising the most. Hang Seng Index closed down 0.5% while it was down more than 1% during the trading hours. China Enterprises Index fell only 0.11%. Cyclical sectors fell the most in both A-share and HK market at the news that the state council standing committee brought up with measures to deal with the rising commodity prices.
Why were both A-share and HK market so resilient? Shanghai Composite Index fell 10.8% from Feb. 18th to March 8thand bounced up and down since then. During the same period 9 out of 28 sectors rose in A-share. The high-valued group-holding stocks fell the most. Hang Seng Index fell 10.8% from Feb. 18thto May 13th. 3 out of 12 sectors in HK rose, which were conglomerates,utilities and property and construction sector. The high-valued tech sector fell 30% during the same period. From Feb. 18th to May 15th Shenzhen Component Index, Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index was ranked at 16th, 15thand 12th among the 16 global major stock indexes based on increase. In another word both A-share and HK markets lagged far behind other major indexes. Yet both Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index were valued at the lowest levels among the globe. Moreover, with the US dollar index going down more capital would flow into these two markets.
The US stocks concluded three-day losing streak and rallied.The initial jobless claim last week was 442,000, better than expected and was the lowest since March20th 2020. Tech stocks bounced back strongly. The Treasury Department required those who transfer money above US$10,000 to report to Internal Revenue Service. Bitcoin bounced back to US$ 40,000.
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