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周一A股抱團股再度大漲。因中小市值公司爆出市值管理的消息，周一抱團股上漲，而部分中小市值個股及ST股大幅下跌。申萬28個行業中17個上漲，11個下跌。其中上周五領漲的非銀金融板塊領跌，電氣設備、有色金屬和食品飲料領漲。港股恒指、國企指數和科技指數分別上漲0.5%、0.95%和1.78%。恒生12個綜合行業中11個上漲，只有公用事業下跌，上周大幅調整的原材料板塊領漲，科技板塊緊隨其后。北上和南下資金分別凈流入25.8億人民幣和84.6億港幣。北上資金凈買入貴州茅臺和美的7.6億和6.6億人民幣，南下資金凈買入騰訊和美團30億和9.6億港幣。

經濟環比動能放緩。4月經濟數據顯示工業生產和投資增速超預期，而消費增速不及預期，經濟增長動能可能環比放緩。4月工業增加值和社會消費品零售總額同比分別增長9.8%和17.7%，1-4月固定資產投資同比增速為19.9%。社會消費品零售總額同比增速低于市場預期部分與疫情有關，另一方面反應了經濟內生動能還不強。我們在2021年A股投資展望中提到，以官方制造業采購經理人指數作為衡量指標，從2005年以來我國一共經歷了四輪完整的庫存周期，其中上行期持續13-23個月，上行幅度1.4-20個百分點；下行期持續23-28個月，下行幅度在1.4-19.8個百分點。一個完整的庫存周期持續36-51個月。本輪庫存周期應是第五個，上行期始于2020年2月，當時中國官方制造業采購經理人指數為35.7，到今年3月份，該指數達到51.9，上行了16.2個百分點。從時間和幅度來看，庫存周期的上行期可能已經結束。4月中國制造業采購經理人指數以及剛剛發布的4月份經濟數據來看，在一定程度上確認上行期的結束。未來將會面臨庫存周期的下行期。經濟增速放緩初期，早周期行業的增長可能要面臨挑戰，包括汽車和房地產。市場預期也將從央行何時加息轉向央行何時開始放水。

美股周一小幅下跌。科技股下跌拖累股市，蘋果和奈飛下跌0.9%，特斯拉下跌2%以上。瑞銀分析師認為盡管通脹可能會引發擔憂，但市場總體上漲趨勢仍將在周期股的帶領下維持。沃爾瑪和家得寶將會在周二報告1季度業績。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose on Monday. The news that some listed mid-to-small-cap companies manipulated stock prices sent these companies’ stock prices down sharply. Group-holding stocks rallied as they are all big-cap companies.  17 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose with electric equipment, non-ferrous metal and food and beverage rising the most. The non-bank financial which performed the best last Friday fell the most. In HK only utilities fell out of the 12 sectors. The raw material sector which fell sharply last week rose the most and tech sector followed.

China economic growth rate might be slowing down. In April both China’s industrial value-added and fixed asset investment delivered growth rate above expectation. But consumption came in lower than expected. Both the leading indicator official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in April and the economic data released on Monday signals that China’s economic growth is slowing down month-on-month. We analyzed inventory cycle in “The investment outlook for A-share in2021” and found that based on official manufacturing PMI China experienced four full inventory cycles. The upswing stage of an inventory cycle usually lasts 13-23 months and downward stage lasts 23-28 months. The official manufacturing PMI can go up by 1.4-20 percentage point in upswing stage and go down by 1.4-19.8 percentage point in downward stage. A full inventory cycle lasts 36-51 months. The most recent inventory cycle began in Feb. 2020 when official manufacturing PMI reached the lowest point 35.7. It then went up by 16.2 percentage point till March 2021 and reached 51.9. We judged that the upswing stage of the inventory cycle might conclude and the downward stage might begin. The early-stage sectors including auto and property might face growth challenges as economy slows down. Market now expects the central bank to inject liquidity rather than to raise interest rate.

The US stocks fell slightly.Tech stocks fell. Inflation is still a concern but market might continue to rise in regardless of this.

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