周四A股和港股均放量大跌。周期股領跌。一方面周期股票近期漲幅較大，有獲利回吐壓力，另一方面國務院專門召開會議應對大宗商品上漲的消息也給板塊構成壓力。阿里巴巴在2021年1季度因巨額罰款鞥上市以來首次季度虧損，美股下跌超過6%。北上資金凈流出56.4億人民幣，南下資金凈流入42.9億港幣，為連續第三天抄底。
通脹會否短暫上升之后回落？這是近期市場關注的焦點。周三出爐的美國4月生產者價格指數同比上漲6%，與消費者價格指數一樣超出市場預期，顯示美國國內已經出現全面通脹的格局。4月超預期上漲的消費者價格指數一部分是由于供應鏈受損而導致的，如因半導體短缺，計算機和二手車價格分別同比（下同）上漲4.1%和10%。還有一部分是由于經濟復蘇強勁導致的，如飛機票和酒店價格分別上漲10.1%和8.8%。但是這些行業只占美國經濟的7%。另外93%的通脹水平只上漲了0.3%，符合預期。貝萊德固定收益首席分析師認為考慮到已經和即將實施的財政和貨幣政策，新冠危機的凈結果就是通脹上升，至少在近期是這樣。金融和房地產領域的泡沫對應對危機的政策提出挑戰，如果政策不能夠及時調整，通脹的風險將會提升。但是美聯儲將就業目標放在通脹目標前面，如果就業達不到目標，美聯儲可能寧愿通脹上升。中國4月生產者價格指數上漲幅度也超出市場預期。當前美國可能處在經濟過熱期，而中國處在滯漲期。過去三個月美股和美元指數上漲，資金逃離新興市場。5月14日明晟中國指數收盤在104.81，從2月17日高點下跌20%。跌入技術性熊市。新興市場走向取決于美元指數。超預期的通脹數據對美元指數提供了支撐，但美元指數仍徘徊在90的低位。
美股上漲，結束了連續三天的下跌。投資者忽略了4月生產者價格指數超預期的消息。上周首次申請失業救濟人數為473,000,預期490,000。自今年1月以來，首次申請失業救濟人數已接近腰斬，反應就業市場持續復蘇。受此消息影響，經濟復蘇股上漲。科技股中蘋果上漲，特斯拉下跌。一些分析師認為美國經濟復蘇前景確定，應逢低買入。但也有分析師認為應權衡通脹前景對貨幣政策的影響。
Both A-share and HK stocks crashed on Thursday. Cyclical stocks fell sharply following the US market crash overnight. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 428 million while south-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$9.8 billion, which was 100% increase from that on Tuesday.
Will the inflation be transitory? The higher-than-expected consumer price index is mostly related with the pandemic.There were factors such as supply chain congestion that added to the pressures.For example, due to the chip shortage computer prices went up 5.1% year-on-year (the same below) and used car prices up 10%. At the same time, an aggressively recovering economy pushed prices for airline tickets (up 10.2% in April) and hotels (8.8% higher). But these sectors only accounted 7% of the overall economy. The other 93% of the economy rose 0.3%, just in line with expectations. Analyst from BlackRock believed that when factoring in all the monetary and fiscal stimulus that’s been delivered (or shortly will be), the Covid crisis seems likely to be a net inflationary event, at least in the near term. The risk of overheating in multiple places across the financial and real asset arenas is becoming more and more of a realistic challenge for future policy, as some have suggested, and without an evolution of what heretofore has been policy reacting to emergencyeconomic conditions, the risk from this will only grow.
The US stocks rose. Initial jobless claims, week ended May 8, was 473,000 vs. 490,000 expected and an upwardly revised 507,000 during prior week. Continuing claims, week ended May 1 was 3.655 million vs. 3.650 million expected and an upwardly revised 3.700 million during prior week. Weekly jobless claims have nearly halved since the start of 2021, and have fallen precipitously from their pandemic-era high of more than 6 million last year. Prior to the pandemic, new jobless claims averaged just over 200,000 per week throughout 2019. Reopening stocks rallied. Apple rose while Tesla fell.
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