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上周五A股下跌，港股微跌。五一長假后兩個交易日，A股的上證指數、創業板指和科創50分別下跌0.81%、5.85%和4.41%。申萬28個行業中11個上漲，17個下跌。其中漲幅居前的是鋼鐵、采掘和有色金屬行業，跌幅居前的是休閑服務、醫藥生物和電子。值得注意的是茅指數在4月份連續下跌2個月后反彈7.4%，而五月兩個交易日就下跌了4.92%。很多“茅股”跌破技術均線，預示后期走勢也不容樂觀。港股上周五個交易日，恒生指數、國企指數和科技指數分別下跌0.4%、1.17%和4.31%，恒生12個綜合行業中6個上漲，6個下跌，其中能源、原材料和公用事業非漲幅居前，而科技和醫療保健跌幅居前。輝瑞CEO周日發文明確表示反對美國政府放棄疫苗專利。

美聯儲削減購債規模對股市的影響有多大？A股市場投資人對美聯儲何時收回流動性普遍表示關注。最近一次美聯儲削減購債規模發生在2014年。美聯儲在2013年12月宣布，2014年1月開始實施。回顧2013年下半年和2014年，美股基本不受購債規模縮減的影響。而新興市場股市在美聯儲開始縮減購債規模前后表現疲弱，主要受到風險偏好較低導致資金更青睞發達國家、美元指數上漲以及資源品價格下跌的影響。從估值角度看，標普500在2014年1月靜態市盈率為18.3倍，而當前為33倍，對比2000年網絡泡沫破滅之前的靜態市盈率最高點為30倍。市場普遍認為美聯儲削減購債規模將會導致美股大幅調整，從而結束美股從疫情開始后持續一年多的牛市。事實是否如此有待驗證。上一次削減購債規模之后美股走勢未受到影響主要是因為美國經濟基本面強勁。所以，這一次美聯儲回收流動性，如經濟基本面能夠保持強勁，則對股市有短期沖擊，但不會造成重大影響。同時隨著大宗商品價格持續上漲，以巴西、俄羅斯為代表的資源國的基本面不會差。而美國經濟較強，對新興市場中的出口國經濟也提供支撐。經濟強，則股市強，對美聯儲回收流動性也許并不需要談虎色變。

美股上周五大漲。4月非農就業人數26.6萬，預期為99.8萬。失業率上升到6.1%，預期為5.8%。非農數據不及預期將延后美聯儲收縮流動性。

A-share tumbled while HK stocks fell slightly last Friday. Over the two trading days last week A-share fall sharply. The so-called Kweichow Moutai Index fell 4.92% after rising 7.4% in April. This index fell for two months in a row in Feb and March. The fall last week signals that its rebound in April came to the end. Its future is full of uncertainties as many stocks have fallen below 120-day moving average line. HK stocks traded for 5 days last week. Hang Seng Index, Enterprises Index and Tech Index fell 0.4%,1.71% and 4.31% respectively. 6 out of 12 Hang Seng Composite Index rose with raw material and energy sector rising the most.

How much impact would Fed’s tapering have on the stock market? Investors in A-share are concerned that Fed’s tapering might cause the global stock market to crash. The most recent tapering happened in 2014 and Fed announced the tapering in Dec. 2013. The US stock market was not affected that much while the emerging stock markets fell sharply in 2H2013 and 2014. There were three factors contributing to the poor  performance of the emerging markets. The first is that risk preference for emerging markets were lower than for developed markets as global economy was weak. The second is that US dollar appreciated in mid-2014 and this caused capital to fly back to the US stock markets. The last but not the least is that commodity prices declined and resource countries such as Brazil and Russia were faced with challenges to grow their economy. But this time things are different. The commodity prices are rising and hence resource countries would see robust economic growth. Moreover,strong economies of developed countries means that their consumption demand would drive the economic growth of export-oriented developing countries. Hence, this time might be different if Fed begins to taper.

The US stocks rallied. The lower-than-expected non-farm payroll might delay Fed’s action to take back liquidity.  

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