周四A股下跌，港股上漲。申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中13個(gè)上漲，15個(gè)下跌。其中漲幅居前的是鋼鐵、采掘和有色金屬行業(yè)，跌幅居前的是休閑服務(wù)、醫(yī)藥生物和食品飲料。抱團(tuán)股大跌。港股恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中9個(gè)上漲，3個(gè)下跌，能源、金融和非必需消費(fèi)行業(yè)漲幅居前，而科技和醫(yī)療保健跌幅居前。因?yàn)槊绹С?/font>醫(yī)藥企業(yè)放棄疫苗專利，A股和港股的疫苗企業(yè)受到影響，股價(jià)重挫。
抱團(tuán)股大跌。周四抱團(tuán)股因不同原因再次大跌。跌幅最大的休閑服務(wù)因五一假期過去，炒作資金撤離。醫(yī)藥生物的下跌除了上面提到的美國放棄疫苗專利之外，還有醫(yī)美股的集體跳水，也應(yīng)與炒作資金撤離有關(guān)。食品飲料下跌主要是白酒股和乳業(yè)股下跌，白酒股中的古井貢酒、瀘州老窖和洋河股份分別下跌9.98%、6.14%和4.78%，乳業(yè)股中的光明乳業(yè)和伊利股份分別下跌4.91%和3.17%。白酒股的下跌應(yīng)是因?yàn)楣啪暰?021年1季報(bào)不及預(yù)期，引發(fā)市場對整個(gè)板塊的擔(dān)憂。港股餐飲股下跌，海底撈重挫7.4%，股價(jià)較2月17日高點(diǎn)接近腰斬。所有下跌抱團(tuán)股的一個(gè)共同特點(diǎn)是估值較高以及基本面2季度可能面臨一定的挑戰(zhàn)。與之相對應(yīng)，有色鋼鐵等低估值股票漲勢如虹。國際大宗商品價(jià)格頻頻上漲，為這些股票提供了基本面支撐。同時(shí)，對于通脹是否能夠短暫上漲而后消逝，市場存在一定的分歧。包括高盛和美國銀行在內(nèi)的一些外資投行認(rèn)為，銅價(jià)未來可能會(huì)持續(xù)上漲。而美聯(lián)儲則認(rèn)為通脹將在4、5月份高基數(shù)和供應(yīng)鏈緊張的作用下暫時(shí)上漲。這種分歧反而為大宗商品上漲提供了契機(jī)。我們判斷股票投資環(huán)境已經(jīng)發(fā)生了很大變化，未來全球經(jīng)濟(jì)有可能進(jìn)入高利率、高增長和高通脹的環(huán)境。再用過去的投資框架進(jìn)行投資有可能會(huì)錯(cuò)失市場中的機(jī)會(huì)，而拘泥不變很可能造成較大損失。“芳菲歇去何需恨，夏木陰陰正可人”。市場風(fēng)格變換需及時(shí)把握。否則，當(dāng)你感到“蕭瑟秋風(fēng)今又是”的時(shí)候，股票市場可能已經(jīng)是“換了人間”。
美股大漲。上周首次申請失業(yè)救濟(jì)人數(shù)不到50萬人，為疫情以來的最低點(diǎn)，也好于市場預(yù)期。道指大漲300多點(diǎn)，接近前期高點(diǎn)。
A-share fell while HK stocks rose on Thursday. In A-share 12 out of 28 sectors rose with iron and steel, mining and non-ferrous metal rising the most.Leisure service, bio-medicine and food and beverage sector fell the most. In HK 9 out of 12 sectors rose with energy and financial sector rising the most. Tech and healthcare sector fell the most. Because the US might forgo patents on COVID-19 vaccines, vaccine producers’ stocks tumbled in both A-share and HK market.
Group-holding stocks fell sharply. Stocks in leisure service, food and beverage and bio-medicine sectors dived on Thursday. The reasons behind are high valuation and that earnings growth of these stocks might miss expectation. We believe that economic conditions are changing from low interest rate, low inflation and low growth to high interest rate, high inflation and high growth gradually. The new economic environment would be more friendly to low-valued stocks than to high-valued stocks.Those investors who cannot shift their investment frameworks quickly might miss good investment opportunities and incur big losses. Fed believes that inflation would be transient in April and May due to the low base in 2020 and supply chain interruption from the pandemic. But some investment banks including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America thought that copper prices would see an upward trend lasting for years due to supply shortage and high demand from new energy. Hence, inflation might persist. Moreover, for 2021 developed countries along with developing countries would see above trend GDP growth rate due to the low base in 2020. For example, the US and UK would grow GDP at 7% and 7.25% respectively in 2021. China and India would see 9% and 11% GDP growth rate respectively. The global economy growth would see the fastest rate in 40 years. Ultimately group-holding stocks might no longer be the favorite ones in the market and their stock prices might suffer big retreat.
The US stocks rallied. The initial jobless claim last week was better than expected.
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