五一假期外圍股市漲跌互現。其中資源國國家指數漲幅居前，包括俄羅斯和澳大利亞，而科技市值占比較大的地區比如臺灣和納斯達克則跌幅較大。港股三個交易日恒生指數、國企指數和科技指數分別累計下跌1.1%、0.95%和2.47%。恒生12個綜合行業中5個上漲、7個下跌，原材料和能源行業漲幅居前，而科技和醫療保健跌幅居前。五一期間，國內消費旺盛。但受疫情影響，據2019年的消費水平仍有一定差距。
5月到底窮不窮？進入5月，國內投資人最關心的是“五窮六絕七翻身”的炒股秘訣會否再次應驗，國外也有“五月賣出，遠離股市”的俗諺。統計數據顯示，歷史上5月美股的表現并不差。自1980年以來，5月標普500月度平均收益為0.9%，在12個月中的表現按照從弱到強排名第六。A股從2010年以來5月份的平均收益為-0.6%。具體到今年五月窮不窮關鍵還是看企業盈利和估值的情況。今年2季度對A股部分行業而言面臨的是2020年相對高基數，尤其是受益于疫情的股票，包括部分醫藥企業、宅家消費以及出口行業。這些行業在今年2季度很可能不會看到如去年那么旺盛的需求，因此，業績有可能面臨增速下滑甚至同比負增長的狀態。但是，受益經濟復蘇的行業有可能會在今年2季度盈利增速有較好表現，因為去年疫情將這些行業的經濟活動抑制住了。宏觀層面，影響市場最大的因素仍然是經濟和貨幣和財政政策。美國財長耶倫周二指出經濟過熱需要加息，美股科技股大跌。這可以理解為測試市場對加息的承受能力。高估值個股顯然承受能力較差，經濟復蘇股比如銀行則受到加息消息的提振而上漲。我們認為美國加息仍然是相對較長一段時間才能發生的事情。近期需要密切關注的是美聯儲削減債券購買宣布和實施的時間點。上一次削減債券購買時，時任美聯儲主席伯南克2013年5月國會作證時表示會削減債券購買，2014年1月正式實施。
美股漲跌互現。通用汽車1季度業績大超預期，股價上漲帶動道指上漲。大宗商品股票包括石油、玉米和木材等繼續上漲，科技股繼續下跌。拜登政府支持放棄對新冠疫苗專利的所有權，疫苗類企業股價大跌。
Global stock markets mixed during the Labor Day holidays.Resource countries’ stocks performed better such as Russia and Australia. Tech lagged behind.Taiwan Weighted Index (TWI) fell 4.4%, the most among global major stock indexes. And Nasdaq fell 2.72%, only better than TWI. Heng Seng Index,China Enterprises Index and Tech Index fell 1.1%,0.95% and 2.47% respectively during Monday and Wednesday. 5 out of 12 Hang Seng composite sectors fell. Raw material and energy sector rose the most while tech and healthcare sector fell the most. Chinese consumption boomed during the holidays as tourists crowded in almost every scenery countrywide. But due to pandemic control measures consumption during the holidays was still below the levels in 2019.
Will May see stock market perform poorly? Sell in May and go away. Investors tend to think that stocks perform poorly in May. Yet from 1980 till 2020 SP 500 delivered 0.9% return in May, which put it at the seventh best-performing month among the 12 months. Shanghai Composite Index delivered an average of -0.6% return in May from 2010 to 2020. We believe that stock performance should be tied to companies’ earnings growth and valuation. For those stocks who benefit from the pandemic in 2Q2020 including healthcare stocks,in-house work and entertainment stocks, they might not see the same demand for their products this year. Hence, their earnings growth might slow down or even slide compared with last year. And for those benefiting from economic recovery, their earnings growth might be strong as pandemic held up these sectors’ activities last year.Whether the Fed will begin to taper bond purchase would have a big impact on the global stock market. In May 23rd, 2013, in testimony to the Congress Fed chairman Bernanke announced that Fed would taper. Then Fed announced its taper plan in Dec. 2013 and began to execute the plan in Jan. 2014.
The US stocks mixed on Wednesday. Commodity stocks rose while tech stocks continued to slide.
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