周四A股和港股連續第三天探底回升。A股申萬28個行業中19個上漲，9個下跌,漲幅居前的為非銀金融、銀行和家用電器，跌幅居前的鋼鐵、綜合和汽車。恒生12個綜合行業中只有醫療保健行業在連續幾天上漲后周四下跌，其余11個行業上漲，原材料、綜合和公用事業漲幅居前。北上資金凈流入50.9億人民幣。港股通周四暫停，5月6日恢復交易。
持股還是持幣過節？五一假期在即，持股還是持幣過節的問題又出現了。春節之后的股市暴跌還歷歷在目，投資人對過節期間存在的不確定性心有余悸。不過，這個問題其實并沒有特別的意義。首先，投資是“風物長宜放眼量”。股神巴菲特的老師本杰明·格雷厄姆說過：股市短期是投票機，長期是稱重機。研究發現，股價走勢與盈利增速的相關度隨著時間的拉長而提高。短期的股價變動可能就是一個小擾動，為了這種可能的擾動而賣出好股票不見得是明智的做法。其次，我們判斷支撐股市的因素不會一夜之間發生重大變化，包括經濟增速和財政貨幣政策等。最近對全球市場產生較大影響的是印度的新冠疫情。盡管印度新冠疫情嚴重，但是根據經濟學家的預測，今年印度仍有10%以上的經濟增速。最新消息是印度自己研制的疫苗正在進行臨床三期實驗，將有可能在五月中旬獲得當局的緊急授權。這對印度控制疫情應該會有所幫助。國內的貨幣政策維持中性狀態。雖然大宗商品價格持續上漲，但從上市公司的一季報來看，還沒有對中下游企業的利潤率產生比較明顯的影響。因此，貨幣和財政政策也不存在急劇轉向的可能性。最后，從一個股票上賺取較高收益一定要有較長時間的持股周期才可能做到。短期炒作賺不到大錢，而且很容易被市場情緒所左右。
美股大漲。上市公司1季度業績持續超預期，分析師認為經濟學家很可能低估了歐美經濟復蘇的強度。周五會公布個人消費支出指數，這是衡量通脹水平的關鍵指標。華爾街預期5月份通脹將會達到3%的水平，預期美聯儲在6、7月份討論縮減債券購買，9、10月份宣布，明年1月份實施債券縮減計劃。
Both A-share and HK market rose. Thursday marks the third day in a row that markets bottomed up. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB5.09 billion. HK-connect was paused for the Labor holidays and will resume trading on May 6th,2021.
To hold stocks or not during the Labor holidays? This question actually does not make much sense in that one should take a long-term view on investment. Big returns come from holding good stocks as long as you can. Benjamin Graham, the mentor of Warren Buffett, ever said that stock market is a voting machine in the short-term and a weighting machine in the long term. Research also found that the stock prices’ correlation with earnings increase with the duration of investment horizon. Currently the major risk to global stock markets is the worsening pandemic in India. But economists still expect India GDP to grow 10% or above in 2021. Moreover, it was reported that India was developing its own vaccine and possibly approves it for mass vaccination in May. While inflation pressure is rising with commodity prices, China has maintained a neutral monetary policy and an active fiscal policy. From 1stquarter earnings of listed companies in A-share the rising commodity prices have not caused margin contraction. Hence, there is no need to worry about the sharp U-turn of monetary and fiscal policy.
The US stocks rallied. Company earnings in the first quarter of 2021 were above expectation. Some analysts believed that economists might underestimate the strong recovery of economy from COVID-19. On Friday personal consumption expenditure data in March will be released, which is a key measure of inflation and Fed observes closely. The Wall Street expects that consumer price index in May could reach as high as 3%.The consensus for tapering is that Fed will talk about tapering in June or July and announce its plan in Sept/Oct and execute it in Jan 2022.
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