周三A股和港股再次探底回升。A股申萬28個(gè)行業(yè)中23個(gè)上漲，5個(gè)下跌,漲幅居前的為電氣設(shè)備、采掘和醫(yī)藥生物，跌幅居前的通信、計(jì)算機(jī)和輕工制造。恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中仍是7個(gè)上漲，5個(gè)下跌，醫(yī)療保健、金融和地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)漲，而原材料、電訊和非必需消費(fèi)業(yè)跌幅居前。北上和南下資金分別凈流入20億人民幣和8.7億港幣。
擁擠的賽道。美銀證券發(fā)表研究報(bào)告指過去一年汽車股表現(xiàn)亦穩(wěn)健，由去年次季至今年首季銷量亦見復(fù)蘇，該行對行業(yè)及股價(jià)表現(xiàn)看法轉(zhuǎn)向保守，認(rèn)為下半年受基數(shù)影響月度銷售同比增速可能會放緩，投入成本上升和芯片短缺等因素會為智能電動(dòng)車成本及經(jīng)營開支帶來壓力。該行相信2020-2025年內(nèi)地整體電動(dòng)車銷量年復(fù)合增長將達(dá)26%，不過競爭將加劇。百度、小米及滴滴均宣布進(jìn)軍電動(dòng)車市場，鴻海亦成立MIH聯(lián)盟為初創(chuàng)如Fisker等提供生產(chǎn)服務(wù)。傳統(tǒng)汽車生產(chǎn)商亦會積極生產(chǎn)銷售電動(dòng)車。領(lǐng)先的電動(dòng)車企頻頻升級ADAS系統(tǒng)，以改善自動(dòng)駕駛等用戶體驗(yàn),估計(jì)小鵬及理想今年研發(fā)開支將分別升73%及140%，以開發(fā)自動(dòng)駕駛的運(yùn)算及軟件。更多傳統(tǒng)汽車品牌將跟隨電動(dòng)車企業(yè)步伐，增加投資以維持市場份額及競爭力。除研發(fā)外，目標(biāo)建立高端品牌的公司在銷售及營銷開支上亦會較高。總之，汽車整車特別是電動(dòng)車賽道有點(diǎn)擁擠，估值面臨下行壓力。做電池及電動(dòng)汽車零部件的所謂“賣水人”是否能受益呢？我們認(rèn)為“賣水人”目前估值水平較高，整車企業(yè)估值下調(diào)對其估值也產(chǎn)生壓力。
伯克希爾·哈撒韋的年會。周六備受矚目的伯克希爾·哈撒韋年會將在洛杉磯通過網(wǎng)絡(luò)直播進(jìn)行。投資人關(guān)注在當(dāng)前美股估值處在歷史高位的時(shí)刻，股神巴菲特如何看待市場。從以往年會看，巴菲特和芒格的回答基本都是讓投資人回歸常識，進(jìn)行長期投資。如果不能持有一只股票一輩子，就不要持有一天。大道至簡，投資不是一時(shí)一日之功，而應(yīng)該視作是一生一世的事業(yè)。試圖一夜暴富，在股市里很難有好收益。
美股小跌。聯(lián)儲議息會議符合預(yù)期，波音1季度業(yè)績低于預(yù)期。
Major indexes in both A-share and HK market rose slightly on Wednesday. 23 out of 28 sectors rose with electric equipment, mining and bio-medicine rising the most. Telecom,computer and light industry fell the most. In HK market 7 out of 12 sectors rose with healthcare, financials and discretionary consumption falling the most. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB2 billion and HK$870 million respectively.
A crowded track. Bank of America (BOA) issued a report, in which it downgraded auto sector due to increased competition,rising costs and high base last year. Auto sector began to grow in positive territory from May 2020 till now. So from May 2021 auto sector would face a high base. BOA estimated that electric vehicle (EV) sales volume can grow at 26% per annum from 2020 to 2025 in China. But competition is increasing as Baidu, Xiaomi and Didi all enter this sector. Hon Hai formed an alliance called MIH to help produce Fisker EV. Traditional auto makers also hurry up producing EV. Moreover, EV players continuously upgrade their ADAS systems to improve users’ experience. Research and development costs for Xiao Peng and Li Auto will increase by 73% and 140% respectively this year. Both EV players will invest big in self-driving computing and software. This would make other auto players to follow suit. Shortage of chips adds additional pressure for EV.In summary EV track is becoming crowded. Will the battery and auto parts producers benefit from the increased competition? Their revenue and profit might benefit. But EV players valuation might be pressured with increased competition. So would the whole industrial chain.
The US stocks fell slightly. Fed concluded its two-day meeting and reassured the market that it will be accommodative and would not talk about taper soon. Boeing posted another quarterly loss and dragged DOW index down.
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