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周二A股和港股均探底回升。A股申萬(wàn)28個(gè)行業(yè)中7個(gè)上漲，21個(gè)下跌,漲幅居前的為醫(yī)藥生物、休閑服務(wù)和紡織服裝。恒生12個(gè)綜合行業(yè)中7個(gè)上漲，5個(gè)下跌，原材料行業(yè)繼續(xù)領(lǐng)漲，公用事業(yè)、能源和金融行業(yè)跌幅居前。北上和南下資金分別凈流入35億人民幣和8.3億港幣。貴州茅臺(tái)一季度凈利潤(rùn)同比上升6.6%，為2015年以來(lái)的最低增速。

美團(tuán)將被處罰但影響不大。摩根·斯坦利認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)監(jiān)管總局對(duì)美團(tuán)的調(diào)查并不令市場(chǎng)感到意外，美團(tuán)之前已經(jīng)完成了募資，罰款風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)是可控的。野村認(rèn)為美團(tuán)可能會(huì)因違反反壟斷法被國(guó)家市監(jiān)局定罪。按壟斷法規(guī)定，罰款額為上年度綜合營(yíng)業(yè)額的1%-10%。如罰款是按上一年銷(xiāo)售額的4%(如阿里巴巴的情況)，美團(tuán)將可能被罰款46億元人民幣(約7.06億美元)，相當(dāng)于美團(tuán)凈現(xiàn)金余額180億美元的約4%，包括最近發(fā)行股票和可換股債券籌集的100億美元，預(yù)計(jì)潛在罰款對(duì)美團(tuán)的業(yè)務(wù)影響有限。該行維持美團(tuán)買(mǎi)入評(píng)級(jí)，目標(biāo)價(jià)404港元。美團(tuán)股價(jià)周二早盤(pán)下跌，之后轉(zhuǎn)漲。

買(mǎi)入周期股并不晚。過(guò)去一個(gè)月，周期股總體跑輸市場(chǎng)。自去年9月份直到四月中旬，美股的價(jià)值股跑贏成長(zhǎng)股20個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。但根據(jù)美國(guó)銀行，在經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的早期階段，價(jià)值股通常跑贏成長(zhǎng)股60個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。通脹和對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)敏感的股票的表現(xiàn)通常緊密相關(guān)。對(duì)未來(lái)五年的通脹預(yù)期已經(jīng)從去年9月份的1.5%上升到2.4%。成長(zhǎng)和價(jià)值股之間的估值差異也反應(yīng)股市并沒(méi)有反應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。成長(zhǎng)股對(duì)價(jià)值股的估值差與危機(jī)剛開(kāi)始的時(shí)候是一樣的，比2008年金融危機(jī)以來(lái)的中位數(shù)水平要高。銀行是對(duì)利率非常敏感的周期股。當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)好轉(zhuǎn)時(shí)，對(duì)貸款的需求會(huì)增加。同時(shí)隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，利率曲線將更為陡峭，銀行的凈息差會(huì)提升。盡管美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率上升，但銀行的表現(xiàn)并沒(méi)有完全反應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的樂(lè)觀前景。對(duì)上游周期股而言，銅鋁等金屬價(jià)格從去年3月份的低點(diǎn)已經(jīng)或接近翻倍。金屬類(lèi)上市公司都有較大的經(jīng)營(yíng)杠桿，因此，他們的凈利潤(rùn)增速應(yīng)遠(yuǎn)大于收入增速，后者受金屬價(jià)格的驅(qū)動(dòng)。這類(lèi)周期股應(yīng)該還有上漲空間。

美股漲跌不一。2月份房屋價(jià)格同比上漲12%，15年來(lái)最大漲幅。

Major indexes in both A-share and HK market rose slightly on Tuesday. Trading volume was lower than on Monday in both markets. 7 out of 28 sectors rose with bio-medicine, leisure service and textile sector rising the most. In HK market 7 out of 12 sectors rose with raw material sector still rising the most. Utilities, energy and financial sector fell the most. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB3.5billion and HK$ 830 million respectively. Morgan Stanley (MS) believed that it was not out of expectation that Meituan was investigated by the State Administration for Market Regulation for monopolistic business behavior. MS thought the likely punishment to Meituan would not have big impact on its business. Nomura estimated that Meituan might be fined RMB 4.6 billion, 4% of its revenue (same as what Alibaba has been fined). Meituan has raised RMB 10 billion recently via stock and bond issuance and its net cash balance is RMB18 billion.  

It’s not late to buy cyclicals. Cyclicals lagged behind the overall market in April. Cyclicals outperformed growth stocks by 20 percentage point from last September till mid-April. But they usually outperform growth stocks by 60 percentage point in early stage of economic recovery, according to Bank of America. Valuation gap between growth and value stocks is the same as the pandemic began and higher than the median levels from 2008 global financial crises till now. Banks are sensitive to economic recovery and interest rate. When economy recovers demand for loans increases. Meanwhile, banks’ net margin will expand as interest rate will rise with economy going up. Although the US treasury yields have risen two times from their lows in last August, banks’ stock performance is lagging behind. So do the metal stocks. Metal listed companies have big operating leverage, which will drive their earnings to grow much higher than metal prices.

The US stocks mixed. Home prices in February rose 12% year-on-year, the biggest gain in 15 years.

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