A股周一下午跳水，港股小幅下跌。A股成交量創下3月16日以來的新高達到9000億人民幣以上。申萬28個行業中只有3個上漲，分別是采掘、有色金屬和化工。恒生12個綜合行業中只有原材料行業上漲，其余11個行業均下跌，其中必需消費、地產建筑和公用事業跌幅領先。北上和南下資金分別凈流入32億人民幣和19.8億港幣。周一收盤后，市場監管總局發消息稱將對美團涉嫌“二選一”壟斷行為進行調查。無論是中國還是美國的網絡股今年都面臨監管壓力,從而影響他們的股價表現。
抱團股為什么又跌了？A股周一下午突發跳水，抱團股領跌。抱團股面臨雙重壓力，一是估值過高壓力。盡管春節后抱團股股價有一些調整，但其估值仍處在歷史較高水平。這波拉估值行情始于2019年初，兩年時間資金將抱團股估值推高到了歷史較高水平。以滬深300為例，其調整前最高點所對應的靜態市盈率為17.4倍，僅次于2015年股災發生前的市場最高點所對應的靜態市盈率18.7倍。春節后至今，抱團股股價調整了2個月。估值雖然有所下降，目前為14.9倍，但仍處于近10年來90%的分位。羅馬不是一日建成的，估值的抬升非一日之功，消化估值的過程也將會持續比較長的時間。以時間換空間對整體股市來說是一件好事情。如果以快速殺跌的方式調整估值，則對股市的沖擊較大。二是一旦抱團股有一定幅度的上漲，基金面臨的贖回壓力就會加大。這主要是因為過去兩年無論公募還是私募基金都主要投資于抱團股。為應對贖回壓力，在其他股票都賣出之后，只能賣抱團股。因此，未來抱團股的股價如果不是下跌則至多是震蕩。從剛剛發布完畢的基金一季報可以看出，抱團股已經有瓦解跡象。基金加倉順周期板塊，對抱團股的持倉水平總體回落。年初至今A股紅利指數的漲幅為7%，遠遠領先其他風格指數，也表明資金在向價值股轉移。上述表明，抱團股所代表的大盤成長未來上漲空間不大，每次上漲都應該是減倉的時機。
美股漲跌不一。標普500中1/3的公司發布了2021年1季度業績，其中84%的公司盈利正增長。標普和納斯達克指數創出歷史新高，道指回落。拜登本周將會宣布一系列對富人征稅的政策，包括提高資本利得稅至幾乎原來的兩倍。白宮方面認為資本利得稅只會對0.3%的人口征收，因此影響不大。
A-share tumbled and HK stocks fell slightly on Monday . A-share dived on Monday afternoon. Only mining, non-ferrous metal and petrochemical sector rose out of 28 sectors rose in A-share. In HK market only raw material sector rose out of 12 sectors in HK. And consumer stable, property and utilities sector fell the most.North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB3.2 billion and HK$1.98 billion respectively. The State Administration for Market Regulation announced that it would investigate Meituan for its monopolistic business behavior of “Choosing one from two”. This year both Chinese and the US mega-tech firms are faced with supervision measures, which would dent their stocks rally.
Why group-holding stocks fell again? The dive of A-share on Monday afternoon was mainly due to the sell-off of group-holding stocks, which are faced with two challenges. Firstly, their valuation is still at hefty levels.Take the example of CS300, its trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio(TTW PE) was 17.4x, which was only second to the highest level-18.7x before market crash in 2015 over the last 10 years. Group-holding stocks began correction after the Chinese New Year. After two months’ correction CS300 is valued at 14.9x, which puts it at 90% percentile over the last 10 years. Secondly,redemption pressure rose with the group-holding stocks rising. As so many mutual funds have put their money in group-holding stocks, they have to sell them when faced with redemption pressure. Hence, group-holding stocks’ prices would at best bounce up and down if not go down sharply. 1Q2021 reports of mutual funds showed that they are moving away from group-holding stocks. They increased exposure to cyclical stocks while cut exposure to group-holding stocks. In summary, any bounce of group-holding stocks are the chances of getting out of them.
The US stocks mixed. Dow fell while SP 500 and Nasdaq hit record levels.
聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權，授權上海海獅資產管理有限公司轉載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產不對任何人因使用本文中的內容所引發的損失負任何責任。未經楓瑞資產書面授權，本文中的內容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產版權的方式使用和轉載。市場有風險，投資需謹慎。
免費咨詢電話：0757-2833-3269 或 131-0659-0746
公司名稱：上海海獅資產管理有限公司 HESS Capital, LLC
公司地址：廣東省佛山市順德區天虹路46號信保廣場南塔808
Copyright 2014-2020 上海海獅資產管理有限公司版權所有
滬ICP備2020029404號-1
