上周五A股和港股均上漲。上周（下同）A股28個行業中19個上漲，9個下跌。漲幅居前的是電氣設備、醫藥生物和食品飲料，跌幅居前的是商業貿易、紡織服裝和房地產。恒生12個綜合行業中8個上漲，下跌的行業為能源、公用事業、地產建筑和金融，醫療保健、原材料和工業領漲。印度疫情惡化引發A股和港股的醫療板塊崛起。北上資金凈流入210.2億人民幣，南下資金凈流入240億港幣。
三位數的市盈率和100倍的收益。2000年互聯網泡沫破滅之前，美國股市上一些大市值公司的市盈率都有三位數。這些公司包括思科、美國在線、甲骨文、北電網絡、太陽微系統公司、易安信、捷迪訊光電、高通和雅虎。這九家公司中美國在線、北電網絡、太陽微系統公司隨著互聯網泡沫破滅而消失，雅虎在2016年7月黯然退市。其余5家公司的股價在2000-2002年經歷了大幅調整，個別股票的股價回落99%。但如果持有至今，也都有不錯的收益。A股一位投資人2008年投資了某醫藥股，持有13年收益達到100倍。該消息引發A股市場對價值投資的討論。該股票在2008年時的市盈率為50倍左右，目前的市盈率也是在這一水平。因此，13年來股價的上漲基本是由盈利所驅動，生動詮釋了價值投資。但為什么2000年互聯網泡沫破滅后互聯網公司股價大跌，讓投資人損失慘重，而A股這家醫藥公司市盈率不算低卻能夠給投資人帶來豐厚的回報呢？原因在于盈利的可持續性。互聯網泡沫破滅在于商業模式出現了問題，只靠廣告支撐收入的商業模式在經濟下行期遭遇了很大挑戰。當然，泡沫破滅還有羊群效應起作用，體現在投資人對權威的盲從以及無知和偏見，過于相信新科技帶來的商業模式，認為互聯網企業的現金流問題可以在短期內解決，相信市場不會崩潰。這種愚蠢和無知主導的偏見一旦被證偽后，最終必定是一地雞毛。而在遇到好的股票之后，能夠持有13年同樣也不是一件容易的事情。因此，做好價值投資需要獨立判斷和堅守自己的投資理念。就像芒格所說，投資并不簡單。堅持價值投資知易行難。
美股上漲。印度新冠病例數上升引發市場關注。但因為印度在全球貿易中所占比重較小，只要其病毒沒有特別的傳染性，對全球經濟的影響就不大。全球經濟復蘇的不平衡也可以緩解下半年的通脹壓力以及量化寬松退出的壓力。
Both A-share and HK stocks rose on Friday. Last week (the same below) 19 out of 28 sectors rose in A-share with electric equipment,bio-medicine and food and beverage rising the most. 8 out of 12 sectors in HK rose with healthcare, raw material and tech sector rising the most. Energy, financials,utilities and property sector fell. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 21.02 billion and HK$ 24 billion respectively. The sharp rise of COVID-19 new cases in India promoted healthcare sector in both A-share and HK market to rise.
Three digit price-to-earnings ratio (PE) and 100x return. In 2000 there were 9 big-cap companies with three-digit PE in the US stock market. They were Cisco, Oracle, America Online,Nortel Networks, Sun Microsystems, EMC, JDC Uniphase, Qualcomm and Yahoo. By the time the network bubble went off, America Online, Nortel Networks and Sun Microsystems went bankruptcy. Yahoo delisted in 2016. The remaining five companies suffered big retreat of stock prices during 2000 and 2002. Some of them saw their stock prices cut by 99%. But if investors hold them till now, they get big returns. In A-share an investor bought a medicine company’s stock in 2008. She forgot to sell it until recently and only found that the stock rose 100x. This stock was valued at 50x plus PE in 2008 when the investor bought it and remains at this level now. Hence, the stock price was pushed up mainly by earnings growth. This is a case in point for value investment. That the internet bubble burst was due to faulty business model. In 2000 internet companies’ income mainly come from advertisement, which subjected to economic cycle. Moreover, ignorance and to blindly follow so-called professionals also helped build the bubble. Investment requires independent judgment and to stick to value investment principles. But it is easier said than done.
The US stocks rose. Investors were optimistic as vaccination rollout went on well.
聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權，授權上海海獅資產管理有限公司轉載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產不對任何人因使用本文中的內容所引發的損失負任何責任。未經楓瑞資產書面授權，本文中的內容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產版權的方式使用和轉載。市場有風險，投資需謹慎。
免費咨詢電話：0757-2833-3269 或 131-0659-0746
公司名稱：上海海獅資產管理有限公司 HESS Capital, LLC
公司地址：廣東省佛山市順德區天虹路46號信保廣場南塔808
Copyright 2014-2020 上海海獅資產管理有限公司版權所有
滬ICP備2020029404號-1
