周二A股調整。申萬28個行業中10個上漲，漲幅居前的為綜合、農林牧漁和鋼鐵，跌幅居前的為通信、紡織服裝和汽車。滬深兩市成交量較前一交易日略有回落。港股恒生12個綜合行業中8個上漲，非必需性消費業、金融業和綜合領漲，原材料、能源和工業下跌。北上資金凈流出5億人民幣，南下資金凈流入53.9億港幣。
美股再通脹交易。上周四，美國商務部發布了3月份的零售額，季調之后達到創紀錄的7.4萬億美金。華爾街資深人士亞蒂尼認為最近在政府發放疫情資助支票后，2.5億美國人總計有8000億美金的現金在賬上，足以夠他們在各大商場、超市掃貨。3月份的零售銷售額較一年前的4月份的最低點上漲了50%。3月零售額數據出臺后，亞特蘭大聯儲預計美國1季度GDP季調之后增長8.3%，之前為6%。杰富瑞證券的全球策略分析師戴仕文將2021到2022年的全球經濟增長比喻成100米接力賽，接力棒從中國手中傳到美國手中，然后是英國、日本和歐洲一起拿下接力棒。由于庫存水平偏低以及供應鏈的各種問題，他認為美國經濟增長遠遠沒有達到頂峰。但是企業盈利增速有可能已經到頂，一方面原材料價格上漲，另一方面拜登政府加稅，二者對企業盈利都會造成壓力。3月份美國生產者價格指數同比上漲4.2%，創下47年來最大漲幅。綜合各種因素，戴仕文建議堅持再通脹交易，小盤股優于大盤股，經濟增長和通脹將會使利率曲線更為陡峭，銀行和消費金融公司將會受益，推薦受益于經濟復蘇周期性股票。
A股再通脹交易表現較弱。年初以來，A股申萬28個行業中14個上漲，14個下跌。其中鋼鐵、采掘和輕工制造領漲，分別上漲28%、9%和8%，國防軍工、非銀金融和通信領跌。港股年初以來12個行業中，11個上漲，僅有必需消費行業下跌。其中原材料、綜合和能源領漲，分別上漲23.4%、23.2%和19.6%。相比之下，A股與再通脹交易相關的周期性行業漲幅較小，主要原因是大資金仍然布局在所謂好賽道上。考慮到好賽道的高估值，對其的盈利預期也在高位，未來很有可能下降；其股價也面臨下行風險。而對周期股的盈利增速預期較低，盈利增速和股價都存在上行風險。
美股連續第二天下跌。奈飛新增用戶數低于市場預期，股價大跌，帶動納指下跌。市場因新冠病例數持續上升對經濟復蘇產生質疑。
A-share fell slightly with smaller trading volume. 10 out of 28 sectors rose with conglomerate, farming and fishery and iron and steel sector rising the most. Telecom, textile and auto sector fell the most. In HK 8 out of 12 sectors rose with discretionary consumption, financial and conglomerate rising the most. Raw material, energy and industrial fell the most. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 500 million. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$5.39 billion.
Reflation trade in the US stock market. Last Thursday the Commerce Department in the US reported that retail sales in March rose to a record seasonally adjusted US$7.4 trillion, which was 50% increase from last April. Afterthe latest stimulus checks to households, about 250 million Americans have received checks that added up to roughly US$ 800 billion in cash available for them to buy anything they want in supermarkets and department stores. After March retail sales data the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta raised 1Q2021 GDP growth rate from 6% to 8.3%. While economic growth is strong companies’ earnings might peak under the pressure of rising input costs and the likely tax rate increase by Biden administration. March producer price index rose 4.2% year-on-year, the largest gain in 47 years. Sean Darby from Jefferies recommended reflation trade including banks and cyclicals.
Reflation trade in A-share performed poorly. Year-to-date reflation trade in A-share rose much less than in HK market. While a lot of money is still piling in the so-called“Good tracks”, these stocks’ earnings growth might miss given the high expectation. And the cyclicals that benefit from economic recovery might deliver earnings above expectation, which remains at low levels.
The US stocks fell for the second day in a row. Market worried that surging new cases of COVID-19 might stall economic recovery.
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