周一A股放量大漲。A股申萬28個行業中24個上漲，漲幅居前的分別為汽車、電氣設備和有色金屬，跌幅居前的行業為鋼鐵、商貿和綜合。滬深兩市成交量創下一個月以來的高點。港股恒生12個綜合行業中10個上漲，醫療保健、原材料和工業領漲，而科技和能源下跌。北上資金凈流入163億人民幣，為年初以來凈流入金額第二高，僅次于1月8日的206億。南下資金凈流入51億港幣，與前一交易日持平。上海車展周一開幕，汽車板塊受到提振，漲幅在A股和港股都處于領先位置。上海車展顯示汽車未來的發展方向為電動化和智能化，產業鏈利潤格局將被重塑。根據券商預測，到2030年，我國汽車行業來自于售后服務和用車服務的利潤將從2017年占比17%，總計1.16萬億人民幣提升到占比34%，總計4.5萬億人民幣。汽車行業市場規模將從10萬億上升到20萬億。如此大的市場規模吸引各路公司紛紛加入造車的行列。
買給誰呢？有一個小故事說一個投資人買了幾千股股票，股價上漲之后告訴給經紀人賣掉股票。經紀人回答：賣給誰呢？你是唯一購買這只股票的人。老齡化社會對資產價格的壓力從這個故事中可見端倪。美國前商務部長彼得·彼德森在其著作《灰色的黎明》中指出：前面有一座要崩塌的冰山，它被稱為全球老齡化，它可能導致強國的崩潰。發達國家解決老齡化的辦法包括全球化、開放移民等。我國也面臨人口出生率持續下降、老年人口占比持續攀升的問題。未富先老是一個無可回避的現實。央行最近關于人口的研究報告引起市場的廣泛關注，其結論就是只有提高出生率才能解決人口問題。本月底我國第七次人口普查報告將發布，市場預期人口政策將會有所調整。
歐元區經濟走強，美元走弱。高盛將歐元兌美元匯率從1.21美元兌1歐元上調到1.25，未來12個月的目標價格為1.28。高盛同時上調了泛歐洲600指數的目標價格，預計未來12個月該指數上漲10%，而標普500預計只上漲6%。高盛上調歐元匯率的理由包括疫苗接種加快以及住院人數下降，預期歐元區的經濟增長因此將會加速。國際貨幣基金組織預測歐元區2022年經濟增長3.9%，重新回到疫情前的水平。高盛認為美元1季度走強只是反應了疫苗接種比歐元區早，并不是美國經濟持續強于歐元區。
美股從高位滑落。科技股領跌，受益經濟復蘇的股票上漲。
A-share rallied with the biggest volume in a month. 24 out of 28 sectors rosewith auto, electric equipment and non-ferrous metal leading the market. And iron and steel, commerce and trade and conglomerates fell the most. In HK 10 out of 12 sectors rose with healthcare, raw material and industrial leading the market. Tech and energy sector fell. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 16.3 billion, only lower than RMB 20.6 billion on Jan. 8th. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$5.1 billion. Shanghai Auto Exhibition opened on Monday, which triggered market sentiment towards auto sector. Auto will become more intelligent and electric vehicle will become the mainstream in the coming 10 years. The profit deriving from after-market service and driving service will increase substantially from RMB 1.16 trillion, which was 17% of auto sector’s profit in 2017, to RMB 4.5 trillion in 2030, 34% of the sector profit. Market cap will double from current RMB10 trillion to RMB 20 trillion. Such a big market has attracted many players to join.
Who can you sell stocks to? Aging society has become a gray rhino for asset prices. Peter Peterson, the ex-Minister of Commerce in the US, pointed out in his book “Gray Dawn” that aging has become a global issue and this would cause the strong nations to crash. Developed countries have resorted to globalization and immigration to deal with this issue. China is also faced with aging issue with continuously falling birth rate and the elderly taking a bigger share of population. But China is different from the developed nations in aging issue. According to a research paper by the People’s Bank of China, developed countries with an aging population problem tend to be wealthier with a per capita GDP of at least $2,000, while China’s is half that at $1,000. The seventh population census results are to be released at the end of this month. Market expects China’s population policies to make some changes.
The US stocks fell from record high. Tech stocks fell the most while economic recovery stocks rose.
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