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周三A股和港股均縮量上漲。A股申萬28個行業中25個上漲，其中休閑服務、電氣設備和有色金屬領漲，而下跌的行業為銀行、農林牧漁和公用事業。成交量創出年初以來的新低，兩市成交僅為6500億人民幣。港股恒生12個綜合行業全部上漲，其中原材料、醫療保健和科技行業領漲。北上和南下資金均為凈流入。北上凈流入57.3億人民幣，較周二84.66億減少32.3%。南下資金凈流入13億港幣，較周二略增。

行情會是一日游嗎？A股和港股均在連續下跌三天后迎來縮量反彈。很多投資者關心這種行情是否具有持續性。成交縮量表明大量資金采取觀望態度，也就是對股市心存疑慮。我們傾向于認為A股市場整體行情的可能性不大，主要原因是滬深300的估值太高，當前靜態市盈率為14.9倍，處于歷史90%的分位。滬深300的權重主要是抱團股。分行業看，在A股28個行業中，當前靜態市盈率在40倍以上的一共有8個行業，其中休閑服務、計算機和國防軍工的靜態市盈率最高，分別為180、60.6和60.6倍。而銀行、房地產和建筑裝飾的靜態市盈率是所有行業中最低的，分別為7.5、8.4和9.3倍。A股年初至今10個板塊上漲，其中銀行和建筑裝飾分別上漲7%和4%，分別列漲幅的第三和第五位。在下跌的18個行業中，高估值的國防軍工和計算機跌幅較大，休閑服務行業跌幅較小。港股估值較低。以市凈率看，港股的綜合（即香港本地股）、能源和電訊的靜態市盈率分別為0.4、0.5和0.7倍。港股年初以來12個綜合行業中9個上漲，3個下跌。其中漲幅較好的行業均有低估值支撐，譬如漲幅前三的綜合、能源和原材料。而僅有的三個下跌行業分別為必需消費、科技和醫療保健，他們都對應高估值。我們認為無論港股還是A股未來還將延續低估值公司上漲、而高估值公司回落的格局。所以，今年看市場整體走勢并無太大意義。2021年將更注重自下而上選股，只要估值低、業績好，無論在A股還是港股都有表現的機會。

美股從高位滑落。科技股大跌，拖累標普500和納指，因經濟復蘇，通脹上漲。道指上漲，周三高盛、摩根大通等銀行公布的業績皆超預期，市場對經濟復蘇前景樂觀。鮑威爾講話指出今年美聯儲不太可能加息。周四將要公布3月零售數據，預期環比2月增長6%，因1400美金支票已發放到個人。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose on Wednesday.  25 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose with leisure service, electric equipment and non-ferrous metal rising the most.Bank, farming and fishery and utilities fell the most. Trading volume in both Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange was RMB650 billion, the lowest level year-to-date. In HK market, all of the 12 sectors rose with raw material, tech and healthcare sector rising the most. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 5.73 billion, 33% lower than the net inflow on Tuesday. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$1.3 billion, slightly higher than the net inflow on Tuesday. 

Will the stock market continue to rise? Both A-share and HK stocks rose after falling for three days in a row. The low trading volume shows thatmany investors were not participating in the rally. They might want to figureout whether the rally can continue firstly. Our view is that broad market rally might not continue as major indexes are valued at a high level. Take the example of CS 300  Index, it is valued at 14.8x trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTM PE). This puts it at 90% percentile in history. Hence, there is just small room for it to improve valuation. If we analyze A-share from sector perspective, among the 28 sectors there are 8 sectors with TTM PE above 40x. And leisure service, military defense and computer are the highest valued with TTM PE at 180x, 60x and 60x respectively.  Bank, property and construction and decoration are the lowest-valued sectors with TTM PE at 7.5x, 8.4x and 9.3x respectively. Year-to-date there are 10 sectors rising. Most of them are low-valued sectors. In HK year-to-date 9 out of 12 sectors rose in HK market. The low-valued sectors performed better and the high-valued sectors fell. We believe that this year in both A-share and HK market low-valued sectors and stocks would outperform high-valued ones. Stock-picking becomes more important this year. 

DOW rose.  Bank earnings were better than expected.

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