周二A股微跌，成交清淡。申萬28個行業(yè)中，21個行業(yè)上漲，7個行業(yè)下跌。其中國防軍工、汽車和鋼鐵漲幅領(lǐng)先，休閑服務(wù)、家用電器和食品飲料跌幅領(lǐng)先。因港股市場休市，周二沒有北上資金，市場成交量創(chuàng)下年初至今的新低。外圍市場的大幅上漲對A股指數(shù)并沒有產(chǎn)生重大影響，市場人氣比較低迷，但部分中小盤個股走勢較強，顯示市場風(fēng)格可能正在從大盤成長轉(zhuǎn)向中小盤股。深交所晚間公告，康得新終止上市。注冊制下退市節(jié)奏將會有較快提升，使資本市場得以充分發(fā)揮配置資源的功能。國際貨幣基金組織上調(diào)2021年全球經(jīng)濟增速從5.5%到6%，并將中、美和歐盟的經(jīng)濟增速分別上調(diào)到8.4%、6.4%和4%，并稱全球經(jīng)濟2021年將會錄得40年最大漲幅。
3月財新服務(wù)業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)上升到54.3。這是去年12月以來的最高水平。2月份該數(shù)據(jù)為51.5。受訪企業(yè)普遍反應(yīng)3月份的經(jīng)濟活動和總體銷售是年初以來升幅最大的。這應(yīng)該是跟疫情在春節(jié)前后得到有效控制密切相關(guān)。新出口業(yè)務(wù)雖然仍處在收縮區(qū)間但是降幅已收窄。財新同時發(fā)布了3月綜合制造業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)的采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)，從2月的51.7上升到53.1。
4月美股將會開啟一波打臉上漲。4月初美股開啟強勁反彈，道指、標(biāo)普和納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)在過去兩個交易日分別上漲1.67%、2.62%和3.43%。Fundstrat Global Advisor的創(chuàng)始人湯姆李認(rèn)為股市4月份將會持續(xù)上漲，而機構(gòu)投資者在過去三個月一直賣出科技和成長股，而對去年遭受疫情嚴(yán)重影響的股票僅僅有少量配置，他們手里的現(xiàn)金達(dá)到2000億美金。4月份會有更多的來自經(jīng)濟方面的驚喜。機構(gòu)投資者可能不得不追漲，有望推動標(biāo)普500達(dá)到4200點。但是之后股市可能會盤整消化快速上漲。
比爾黃事件有可能再度發(fā)生。瑞士信貸宣布因為比爾黃的對沖基金爆倉，該行將不得不承擔(dān)47億美金的損失。市場人士認(rèn)為未來還會有這種爆倉事件發(fā)生，直到市場下跌，泡沫破裂，這種情況才可能不再發(fā)生。美股微跌。周二勞工部宣布截止2月底美國新增用工需求268,000，總計用工需求達(dá)到740萬，好于市場預(yù)期。下周美股開始報1季度業(yè)績。如果業(yè)績超預(yù)期，則美股還有上漲的動力。
A-share fell slightly amid low trading volume. 21 out of 28 sectors rose.Military defense, and iron and steel sector rose the most while leisure service,home appliance and food and beverage fell the most. HK market closed for the Easter holiday. Hence there was no Shanghai- and Shenzhen-connect trade. Trading volume reached the lowest level year-to-date. IMF raised global economic growth rate in 2021 from 5.5% to 6%.It also raised China growth rate in 2021 from 8.1% to 8.4%. It forecast that the US GDP will grow 6.4% and Euro region GDP will grow 4%. 2021 would see the fastest global economic growth rate in 40 years.
Caixin service Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in March rose to 54.3. This is the highest sinceDec. 2020. Feb. reading was 51.5. Firms reported the sharpest increases inactivity and overall sales in three months. New export business continued to contract but at a slower pace. The higher-than-expected reading in March might be due to that pandemic was well under controlled after the Spring Festival. The service sector is more vulnerable under the pandemic. Caixin’s composite manufacturing and services PMI rose to 53.1 in March from 51.7 in Feb.
The US stock market could see a face-ripper rally. Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors said that institutional investors raised US$ 200 billion of cash since the start of the year by selling tech and growth names. But there might be more positive surprise from economy, which he predicted could push SP 500 to 4200 in April. This implies 3% upside from Tuesday’s close. Institutions might have to chase high. After that the stock market might consolidate the gains for sometime.
The US stocks fell slightly. Job openings at the end of Feb. reached 7.4 million, higher than expected. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.66%. Next week the US companies will report 1Q2021 earnings. If the earnings come in better than expected, then the stock market has more room to run.
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