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     壹 穿越牛熊的板塊

     投資人都希望找到能夠穿越牛熊的股票，但這種股票不僅不可多得，而且不是一層不變。比如過(guò)去10年，醫(yī)藥被認(rèn)為是可以穿越牛熊的，但是在集采政策打壓下，板塊一蹶不振。消費(fèi)也曾經(jīng)被認(rèn)為是可以穿越牛熊的，但是，今年以來(lái)消費(fèi)股的表現(xiàn)也不盡人意。

     貳 牛股在熊市的表現(xiàn)

     現(xiàn)在美股被簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)為FAAMNG的六大科技股在2008年金融危機(jī)之后表現(xiàn)較好，也被認(rèn)為是可以穿越牛熊的股票。但是，其中的蘋(píng)果和微軟在2000年互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅后股價(jià)大幅下跌。蘋(píng)果股價(jià)在2000年3月27日達(dá)到上市以來(lái)最高點(diǎn)150.38美金，之后一路下跌，直到2002年8月份達(dá)到調(diào)整的最低點(diǎn)12.72美金，下跌幅度達(dá)到91.5%。微軟的股價(jià)表現(xiàn)比蘋(píng)果好一些，其最高點(diǎn)在1999年4月，當(dāng)時(shí)股價(jià)為180.38美元，之后開(kāi)啟一年多的下跌，在2000年12月最低跌到45美金，下跌了75%。

     叁 A股公司

     A股里也有很多公司在景氣高點(diǎn)和低點(diǎn)的股價(jià)差異巨大，比如某工程機(jī)械龍頭公司，其最高點(diǎn)的股價(jià)在2007年8月份為70.8元，之后開(kāi)啟了長(zhǎng)達(dá)9年的下跌，這期間該股票在2014 到2015年的牛市中有過(guò)較大幅度的反彈，之后再度下跌，到2016年2月份達(dá)到最低點(diǎn)4.55元。

     肆 除非你忘記了股票投資

     看到中美這些牛股在熊市的表現(xiàn)，很難想象一個(gè)投資人能夠忍受股價(jià)如此大幅度的調(diào)整。因此穿越牛熊在某種意義上就是一個(gè)偽命題：所有股票都會(huì)在牛市大幅上漲后在熊市大幅下跌，沒(méi)有股票能夠穿越牛熊，除非投資人不關(guān)注股市。對(duì)投資人的啟示就是：在股市狂熱的時(shí)候，需要注意投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，否則會(huì)損失慘重；而在股市慘淡的時(shí)候，投資人要積極尋找投資機(jī)會(huì)，因?yàn)檫@可能就是撿錢(qián)的時(shí)刻。要知道美股的科技牛股就是從互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅后才開(kāi)始長(zhǎng)期慢牛行情的。

     伍 美股強(qiáng)勁反彈

     港股上漲，A股微跌。雖然美股因受到奧密克戎第一例病例的消息沖擊而下跌，但A股和港股表現(xiàn)出較強(qiáng)韌性。港股金融股領(lǐng)漲市場(chǎng)，科技股下跌。高盛發(fā)表報(bào)告指近期阿里巴巴的電商零售總體交易總額(GMV)增長(zhǎng)將會(huì)放慢，因受宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)及零售增長(zhǎng)轉(zhuǎn)弱影響。今年中國(guó)第三季度在線實(shí)物商品零售額按年增速放緩至8.7%，整體服裝及化妝品零售額按年分別下跌1.5%及上升2.2%。美股上漲，市場(chǎng)從奧密克戎的恐慌中恢復(fù)。但美股盤(pán)后傳來(lái)紐約州新增5例奧密克戎新病例的消息，股指期貨隨之下跌。

I. Stocks that can ride through the bull and bear market

Are there any stocks that can ride through the bull and bear market? It would be challenging to find such stocks as they change all the time. Take the example of medicine stocks, they performed well over the last 10 years but were hammered by the centralized purchasing policies. Consumption stocks also offered good return over the last 5 years but did not perform well this year.

II. Tech stocks in the US

The FAANMG stocks in the US delivered good return for investors over the last 10 years. But in the internet bubble in 2000 they were hit hardly as well. The stock of Apple reached its peak on March 27th, 2000 at US$ 150.38 and then began to decline. It fell to its lowest point in August 2001at US$ 12.72, down 91.5% from its peak more than a year ago. Microsoft also saw its stock price to down sharply in the internet bubble. Its high point was US$180.38 in April 1999 and fell to the lowest point in December 2000 at US$ 45,down 75%.

III. A machinery stock in A-share

The same thing happens to A-share. A leading machinery player in China saw its stock price reach the highest point in August 2007 and then fall to the lowest point in 2016 at RMB 4.55, down 93.5%. Hence, few stocks can ride through the bull and bear market without damage. Investors should remain cautious in bull market but become brave in bear market. In this way he or she can ride through the bull and bear market.

IV. The US stocks rebounded sharply

Both A-share and HK stocks rose.Low-valued sectors such as financials and property sector rose the most while new energy sectors were lackluster. Goldman Sachs pointed out that China’s online sales of goods slowed down to 8.7% year-on-year in 3Q2021 and might continue the trend going forward. As the largest online goods platform in China Alibaba would be hit badly. Alibaba stock fell 2.47% in HK market, the lowest since its listing in November 2019. It fell 0.48% in the US market. The US stocks rebounded sharply as market shrugged off the concern of Omicron. Yet after market close it was reported that five cases of Omicron were found in New York. The US stock future indexes fell on this news.

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