欧产日产国产精品乱噜噜_羞羞视频免费观看网站_伊人在线视频_一级电影免费_久久免费综合视频_99国产精品国产免费观看

     壹 美聯儲擬加快縮減債券購買規模

     美聯儲主席鮑威爾在周二國會作證時指出應該把通脹暫時的這個詞換成是持久的，并指出將會在12月14-15日的議息會議上討論加快縮減債券購買。美股市場隨之大跌。我們之前在楓瑞視點微信公眾號中發表過多篇文章探討通脹是否持續性以及美聯儲能否退出量化寬松的政策，包括《你在哪個陣營？美聯儲能退出寬松貨幣政策嗎？市場不相信美聯儲能夠退出寬松貨幣政策等。

     貳 奧密克戎對市場的沖擊未知

     事實證明，通脹可能會較長時間保持在高位，這將會給美聯儲退出政策帶來較大壓力。從這個角度看，鮑威爾的突然鴿轉鷹是可以理解的。只不過在奧密克戎壓境的背景下，令市場有點難以接受。當然，在美聯儲本月議息會議之前，關于奧密克戎的情況可能會變得更清晰，包括當前疫苗是否能夠應對該病毒以及傳染性是否足以讓全球重回到2020年3月的隔離狀態中。如果奧密克戎能夠比預期好，則美聯儲加快回收流動性是理所當然的。但是，回收流動性對美股的沖擊也要不容小覷。

     叁 美股估值處在高位

     當前美股的估值處在歷史高位。以美股市值比GDP這個股神巴菲特經常采用的指標看，現在的估值是215%，為歷史上的最高水平。1929年，在市場崩盤之前股票市值對GDP的比例為100%。2000年，這個比值最高為150%。在新冠疫情發生之后，美股的估值一直處在較高水平，所以高估值不意味著股市調整。但是如果經濟基本面變差，則股市將會有較大幅度的調整。所以，投資者一方面要關注奧密克戎的消息，另一方面就是關注美國經濟是否有下行的壓力。我們從庫存周期判斷，美國經濟有可能在3季度達到此次復蘇的高點，之后將會面臨回調。如果此判斷成立，則美國股市有可能會在近期就面臨調整。

     肆 美國股票和國債收益率下跌

     港股和A股反彈。房地產、金融等價值板塊漲幅領先，而光伏等賽道行業調整。因隆基宣布降低硅片價格，光伏產業鏈面臨壓力。美股開盤上漲，但隨著在加利福尼亞發現第一例奧密克戎病例的消息傳出，股市隨之下跌，旅游股跌幅居前。該病例11月22日從南非回到美國，已打了兩劑疫苗，當前癥狀溫和，無需入院。美國防疫專家福喜指出該病毒更易于傳播，發生疫苗逃逸。美國10年期國債收益率下跌到1.41%。

I. The Fed would discuss faster taper 

The Federal Reservechairman Powell said that inflation was not transient and that the Fed planned to discuss faster tapering on the upcoming FOMC on Dec. 14-15th. We have discussed inflation in previous articles published in our official wechat Maple Insight. Our conclusion is that inflation is persisting rather than transient. Amidst the rising risk from Omicron market is surprised that the Fedcould hasten tapering. According to pandemic experts it would take another two weeks for them to learn more about Omicron. By that time the Fed could also determine whether they should go ahead with faster tapering or not.

II. Valuation is at high level

It is noteworthy that liquidity withdrawing would make the US equity face pressure, especially at current valuation levels. The US equity market cap to GDP ratio at this moment is 215% versus 100% at the peak level in1929 and 150% before the 2000 internet bubble crash. The valuation of equity inthe pandemic era has been high and would not cause the stock market to fall unless that economy goes down. 

III. 3Q2022 might the peak of the US economy

We deem that 3Q2021 might be the peak of the US economy in this recovery and from 4Q2021 on the US economy would come down gradually. The US stocks might be faced with headwind in the near term. We need to pay attention to any downward pressure from economy and at the same time towatch any development from Omicron.

IV. The first case emerged in the US

Both A-share and HK stocks rose. Financials and property sector rose the most while photovoltaic sector fell due to that the leading player lowered silicon chip prices. The US stocks fell sharply as the first case of Omicron was found at San Francisco. The patient has been fully vaccinated. He has mild symptoms and does not need to be hospitalized. The travelling stocks fell sharply. The10-year treasury yield fell to 1.41%. WHO said that 23 countries have found Omicron cases and expected the number to grow. WHO suggested that the tools to prevent the transmission of other variants would also apply well to Omicron.

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權，授權上海海獅資產管理有限公司轉載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產不對任何人因使用本文中的內容所引發的損失負任何責任。未經楓瑞資產書面授權，本文中的內容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產版權的方式使用和轉載。市場有風險，投資需謹慎。