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     壹 跌跌不休

     港股恒生指數年初至今下跌13%，恒生國企指數下跌21.8%，而科技指數則下跌了27.6%。從2月中旬的高點算，恒生指數、國企指數和科技指數分別下跌24.7%、32.6%和45.2%，意味著港股主要指數已跌入技術性熊市。

     貳 美元走強

     近期，港股對美元匯率持續走弱，最新匯率為7.7957港幣兌一美元，為2019年12月以來的最低水平。港幣走弱反應投資人對香港股市的熱情衰減。2020年4月到2020年10月，港幣對美元持續在強方兌換保證水平7.75，因當時很多中概股回香港市場上市，國內外投資人紛紛涌入香港市場申購這些股票。而港股今年疲弱的一個主要原因就是美元匯率的走強。美元指數從5月底的89.6685最低點反彈到11月25日的最高點96.8430，反彈幅度為8%。

     叁 國際投資人對港股定價能力較強

     我們分析了美元漲跌與港股表現的關系，發現美元走強，則港股相對A股表現弱；反之亦然。其背后的原因就是港股是歐美機構投資者主導的市場。在香港投資者結構中，歐美的機構投資者仍然占交易的主導地位，占比在40%以上。南下資金占交易額比重已從港股通開通之前的不到10%提高到30%左右，但是南下資金中個人投資者占比較高，因此，對市場的影響力較弱。當美元走強，意味著歐美經濟表現強于中國，這些投資人就會撤出港股配置歐美市場；而美元走弱，通常意味著中國的經濟表現好于歐美市場，歐美機構投資者又把資金重新配置到港股。

     肆 盈利面臨挑戰

     另一方面，投資者預期港股明年的盈利表現不會好，因為科技企業的盈利增速面臨挑戰，而傳統行業則受到房地產的拖累。但在當前水平下，港股的估值已經處在歷史低位，只要有催化劑，港股就會有上漲的動力。我們認為未來可能的催化劑為中國寬松的貨幣或者財政政策。另外，就是如果美國經濟走弱，則美元指數也會面臨回調的壓力，資金將會重回包括香港在內的新興市場。

     伍 股市回調

     中國11月份的制造業采購經理人指數PMI在榮枯線上。但國家衛健委指出將會加大外防輸入的力度，市場擔憂這將會對中國經濟造成進一步的下行壓力。A股微漲，港股下跌。Moderna行政總裁指現有疫苗或不足以應對奧米克戎，藥廠需數月才能大規模生產出疫苗。美聯儲主席稱將加快減少債券購買進程，美股和油價大跌。

I. The HK stocks crashed 

Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprise Index, Hang Seng Tech Index fell 13%, 21.8% and 27.6% respectively. They fell 24.7%, 32.6% and 45.2% respectively from mid-February high, signaling that HK market has fallen to the bear market.

II. The US dollar went strong  

One reason that HK stocks fell is that the US dollar has been going strong. The US dollar index touched low point in late May at 89.6685 and rose from then on. It reached 96.8430 on November 25th, the highest point from May and rose 8% in total. We have analyzed HK market and found out that when the US dollar goes strong HK market performs worse than A-share and vice versa. 

III. Institutional investors are leaving HK market

One reason is that the US and European institutional investors are the mainstream of HK market. By 2019 the US and European institutional investors contributed more than 40% of the trading value in HK market. While Chinese investors also contributed more than 30% of the trading value of HK market most of them were individual investors.When the US dollar goes strong the US and European investors would take money out of HK market and put it in the US and European markets.

IV. Earnings could slow down 

Another reason is that listed companies’ earnings growth slowed down in 3Q2021.For 2022 tech companies’ earnings growth could slow down further. Traditional sectors’ earnings might be dragged down by property sector. While the prospects are not rosy valuation of HK market has reached historical lows. It could rebound once there is a catalyst. We deem that any positive news from policies could lift the market to a higher level.

V. Stocks fell across the board

A-share rose slightly and HK stocks slipped. While November manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was above the threshold 50, the National Health Commission said that China would double down on measures to prevent imported cases. The US stocks and oil crashed as the Federal Reserve would hasten tapering amidst the new variant Omicron. Moreover, Moderna CEO said that it would take months for vaccine producers to develop and produces vaccines targeted Omicron. This also dampened market sentiment. 10-year treasury yield fell to 1.43%, the lowest from late September.

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