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     壹 貧窮的根源

     2019年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主阿比吉特·班納吉和埃斯特·迪芙洛在《貧窮的本質》一書中分析了全球10億人每天只有0.99美元的生活費的原因，從窮人的日常生活、教育、健康、創業、援助等多方面，探究了貧窮的真正根源。他們指出，多年來的扶貧政策大多以失敗而告終，主要是人們對于貧窮的理解不深刻，好鋼沒用在刀刃上。他們提出了一系列針對貧窮的政策措施，包括政府努力改善窮人的生活質量，幫助窮人獲取正確的信息和做出正確的決策，以制度創新來幫助窮人獲得貸款或者免費向窮人提供公共產品服務等。

     貳 疫情陷阱

     從兩位諾貝爾經濟學獎得主所研究的貧窮陷阱案例中，我們可以發現貧窮陷阱的產生通常伴隨著錯誤的觀念、認知、飲食和健康習慣以及制度安排上對窮人的歧視。近期的疫情反復也讓我們思考是否也存在疫情陷阱。雖然疫情一波波爆發幾乎成為常態，但有些國家一而再、再而三地陷在疫情中，可能在某種程度上也是因為各種因素導致的疫情陷阱。

     叁 產生原因

     首先，這些國家中的一些人認為疫苗不起作用，因此堅決不打疫苗。這與窮人頑固地堅持錯誤認知，比如認為自己就是學習不好而放棄學習有一定的相同之處。其次，有些國家確實是缺乏疫苗，是疫情下的真正的窮人。在這種情況下，解決疫情陷阱就需要世界有一種制度，讓這些國家的人民能夠得到充足而且價格可以接受的疫苗。再次，有些人堅持錯誤的行為方式，比如疫情下要堅持少聚集、出門戴口罩、勤洗手等行為規范。但是，因為文化或其他原因，有些人對戴口罩等行為并不認可。很遺憾，這些人就成為疫情下的窮人，要么遭受疫情的沖擊，要么成為疫情的傳播者。最后，有些政府也只關注短期的扶貧效果，給予窮人各種免費的福利。但是，這種扶貧通常不會有持續的效果。這與當前一些政府不斷放水，希望通過放水來解決疫情帶來的問題也有異曲同工之處。如何讓這些國家和人民擺脫疫情陷阱也許是諾貝爾經濟學學獎得主的下一個課題。

     肆 市場反彈

     周一A股和港股均下跌，市場擔心中國會采取更嚴厲的隔離措施以應對新毒株。但歐洲和美國主要股市均上漲。石油、基本金屬價格也反彈。投資人對奧密克戎仍然有很多未解答的問題，但正如我們在市場可能定價了最差情景中所預期的，市場從恐慌中緩解。

I.  Poverty trap

The Nobel Economics laureates—Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo analyzed the roots of poverty in their famous book“Poor Economics”.  They found that poverty derives from daily life, education, healthcare, setting up businesses and getting help, etc.They pointed out that poverty-relieving policies always fail because few people understood the nature of poverty. Policy makers usually take the wrong ways to deal with poverty. Banerjee and Duflo brought up with several measures to deal with poverty trap. These include that governments make efforts to improve the life quality of the poor, help the poor to get the right information and make right decisions, give the poor loans with creative lending system and offer them more welfare, etc.

II.  The pandemic trap

The authors found that poverty usually comes with the wrong thinking, diet and living habits, and discrimination to the poor inarrangements. Recently, a potential new wave of pandemic might surge around the world. We connect the poverty trap with the pandemic trap and found that there are a lot of things in common in these two situations.

III.  Similarities

The first is that wrong thinking plays a key role in both cases. Some people thought that vaccines do not work against the virus and resist taking them. This is similar to those in poverty who thought that they can’t learn well and give up learning. The second is that some nations do not have enough vaccines. For these nations there should be some arrangements in the world to help them. The third is that some people resist the right behaviorin the pandemic such as not gathering, washing hands frequently and wearing masks, etc due to this or that kind of reasons. This is similar to the poor who resist the healthy living habits. The last but not the least is that some nations are short-sighted in dealing with the pandemic. They injected a lot of liquidity into the economy. This is similar to that governments provide welfare to the poor, which can solve their poverty at one time but all the time.

IV.  Market rebounded from the selloff last Friday

Global markets rebounded from the selloff last Friday. Investors seem to shrug Omicron off for the moment.  

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