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     壹 奧密克戎擾動市場

     新的新冠病毒變種奧密克戎上周五和周末吸引了市場的焦點。上周五，美股和歐股大跌。美股因感恩節交投清淡，市場波動加大。石油價格下跌超過10%，創下20個月以來最大單日跌幅。周日開盤的中東股市也隨之大跌。而避險資產相對表現較好，如黃金保持價格平穩。根據中國知名防疫專家，這種新毒株是否會使當前的防疫屏障完全失效需要根據未來兩周更多的數據和實驗室數據才能精準判斷。

     貳 對經濟沖擊應有限

     處在一個黑盒子里，基金經理們紛紛先賣出再問問題。我們認為市場反應的是最悲觀的情景。經過近兩年的時間，各國在應對疫情方面已經積累了很多經驗，而且疫苗也發揮了很大作用。我們非醫學專家，因此對疫情走勢的判斷還需聽專業人士的看法。但是，從經濟的角度看，即使當前重回2020年3月全球閉關鎖國，對經濟的沖擊也要小于當時。因為經過疫情的不斷反復，各國經濟都基本調整到了應對疫情的狀態。市場對新毒株會不會拖延美聯儲收回流動性的進程也十分關心。周五，期貨市場已經從之前預期2022年三次加息縮減到兩次。市場原本還預期在12月議息會議上美聯儲將宣布加快縮減債券購買進程。但如果新毒株持續帶來不確定性，則美聯儲有可能會再耐心等一等。

     叁 對我國經濟和股市影響

     就我國而言，因為我們在防疫上采取的嚴格清零策略一直都比較有效，預計新毒株和Delta一樣對我國經濟的沖擊總體有限。但是，如果其他國家采取嚴格的閉關鎖國政策，無疑會打擊全球經濟復蘇的進程，進而影響我國外需的增速。A股和港股上周五均下跌，港股恒生指數跌幅較大，為9月20日以來的最大單日跌幅。我們認為外圍市場調整對A股和港股的沖擊應有限。年初至今，無論A股還是港股都是全球市場的落后者，當前整體的估值水平也較低。從10月份的工業企業利潤數據看，我國經濟在9月份的基礎上有所恢復。但是，因房地產市場的壓力，經濟下行壓力仍存。如果流動性能夠改善，成長板塊的表現會更好一些。

     肆 A股領漲全球

     A股領漲全球。上周上證指數和深成指是全球16個主要國家和地區指數中唯一取得正收益的兩個指數，側面反應我國的抗疫策略是最優的。俄羅斯、德國和法國領跌全球，印度和恒生指數次之。

I. Omicron

The new variant of COVID-19 Omicron caused global stock and commodity market to crash. Oil sank more than 10% and the Middle East stock index dropped 5% on Sunday. According to experts in epidemic prevention, it takes another two weeks to get the analysis of the new variant and then judge whether it can escape immune system completely.

II.The most pessimistic scenario

As information regarding Omicron is very limited, portfolio managers chose to sell first and then ask questions later. We deem that market is pricing in the most pessimistic scenario.Even if vaccines do not work on the new variant the hit to economy would be less than in March 2020. The reason is that companies have adapted to the pandemic and whatever comes out of this they have a playbook on how to deal with it. Moreover, investors are betting that the Federal Reserve to step in if needed. Market is now pricing in only two interest lifts in 2022 versus three before the news of Omicron. The Federal Reserve had been expected to hasten taper in December FOMC but now it was not expected to do so.

II.   Omicron would not hit our economy as hard as western peers

Last Friday both A-share and HK stocks fell. Yet we believe that Omicron would not hit China’s economy as hard as other nations due to the effective control measures of the pandemic in China. Moreover, the correction of international stock markets would not have a big impact on both A-share and HK stocks. In the first place, both markets lagged their global peers year-to-date. In the second place the two markets are valued at relatively low levels,meaning that they have priced in a lot of negatives including potential ones such as Omicron. While industrial profit in October grew strongly the economy is still faced with downward pressure due to that property sector is going down. At this point we think that more easing policy would come out and growth sectors would benefit from the policies more than value sectors.

IV. A-share performed the best last week

Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index rose last week, the only two indexes among the 16 global major stock indexes. 

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