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     壹 龍頭企業紛紛募集資金

     在新能源車和儲能行業快速發展之際，行業內公司紛紛通過多種融資方式籌集資金。11月24日，某電解液龍頭企業公告定擬定增募資不超過55億元，計劃將其中的44億元用于年產10萬噸新型電解質鋰鹽項目，剩下的11億元用于補充流動資金。值得注意的是，就在今年5月，該公司才剛剛完成一輪11.4億元的定增。動力電池和隔膜龍頭企業也分別發布了巨額定增計劃。11月22日晚間，隔膜龍頭企業披露非公開發行預案，公司擬定增募資不超128億元，用于新增鋰電池隔膜項目、鋁塑膜項目等項目及補充流動資金。其中98億元用于擴產，30億元用于補充流動資金。11月15日晚間，動力電池龍頭企業發布《關于調整向特定對象發行股票方案的公告》，把募集資金總額從不超過582億元下調到不超過450億元，主要用于擴充產能。而一家A-H兩地上市的動力電池龍頭企業年內在H股兩次融資，分別獲得138億港元和299億港元的資金。不光是中國企業忙于擴充產能，韓國在動力電池領域一個主要參與者LG Energy Solution（LG新能源）計劃在2021年IPO，擬融資金額預計約100億美元。

     貳 資本投入強度大幅提升

     這些企業短期內大規模擴產，導致資本投入強度大幅度提升。以前述動力電池龍頭企業為例，從2014年到2020年，其資本支出占銷售收入比例每年均在21-36%的區間。而隔膜龍頭企業從2018年開始資本強度大幅度提升，從之前每年的資本支出占銷售收入比例不足9%大幅提升到60%上下。隨之而來的是自由現金流大幅下降，從2018年到2020年，其每年的自由現金流為-12到-16億人民幣。

     叁 產能會不會過剩？

     我們對比了傳統能源企業在高峰期的資本支出強度，發現該傳統能源龍頭企業在2004到2008年每年的資本強度一直保持在33-43%的水平，2009年資本強度下降到26%，之后逐漸下降，近幾年都在個位數的水平。因為過去10年傳統能源企業一直遭遇產能過剩的困擾。當前的新能源會不會在大規模擴產之后面臨同樣的產能過剩問題呢？

     肆 市場仍缺乏方向

     A股縮量下跌，港股縮量上漲。市場仍處在缺乏方向的振蕩中，一些冷門股表現較好。美股因感恩節休市。歐洲股市上漲，盡管疫情仍在加劇。

I . Capacity expansion

Companies in new energy sector recently has expanded capacity aggressively as the sector is at a booming stage. A leading producer of LiPF6 announced that it would raise capital at RMB 5.5 billion via private placement with RMB 4.5 billion to expand production capacity of 10-tonne electrolyte lithium salt and the remaining RMB 1 billion to supplement working capital. 

Before that the leading player in EV cell also announced that it would adjust down fund raised from RMB 58.2 billion to no more than RMB 45billion with a purpose to expand its EV cell production capacity. Another EV cell player with A and H dual listing has raised HK$ 13.8 billion and 29.9 billion respectively via two private placements recently. 

Also a renowned battery separator producer announced that it would raise no more than RMB 12.8 billion via private placement to increase production capacity. Not only Chinese players are busy in raising money to expand capacity. So do international players. LG Energy Solution, a leading EV cell player in South Korea is expected to raise US$ 10billion via IPO.

II. Capital expenditure intensity increased sharply

The capital expenditure intensity, which is capital expenditure in a year divided by revenue in that year, has increased sharply due to the fast capacity expansion for these companies in new energy sector. Take the example of the leading EV cell player in China, its capital expenditure intensity was at 21%-36% from 2014 to 2020. The battery separator player’s capital expenditure intensity was below 8% before 2018 but increased sharply to around 60% from 2018.

III. Would the production capacity become surplus?

We checked a leading coal miner’s capital expenditure intensity. It was at 33-43% from 2004 to 2008 and fell to 26% in 2009. From 2009 due to production capacity surplus this ratio fell continuously and was below 10% lately. We doubt that the new energy sector might face the same production surplus issue after this capacity expansion race.

IV. Market still lacks direction

A-share fell while HK stocks rose slightly. Volume was light in both markets. The US market closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The European market rose despite the spreading pandemic.

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