壹 周一A股和港股調整
周一A股和港股并沒有延續上周的強勁走勢雙雙調整。A股創業板跌幅居前，有可能是受到北京證券交易所開市的影響。房地產板塊也在上周大幅上漲后調整，A股和港股房地產板塊分別下跌0.9%和0.8%。但是，A股與房地產相關的建材、家電和家居板塊均延續上漲態勢，這些板塊在很大程度上與存量地產帶來的更新需求有關。受到房地產板塊走勢拖累，這些板塊的估值也達到較低水平。
貳 十月經濟數據喜憂參半
10月份經濟數據顯示工業生產和消費均超市場預期。10月份社會消費品零售總額數據同比增長4.9%，與2020年兩年平均增速為4.6%，高于市場預期。但4.6%的同比增速仍是1995年有數據以來的最低水平。工業增加值同比增速為3.5%，與2020年兩年平均為5.2%，仍處在歷史較低水平。投資方面，基建投資增速同比轉正，但是因缺乏優質基建項目，對未來基建投資增速的回升市場沒有很高的預期。1-10月房地產開發投資同比增長7.2%，較1-9月份增速8.8%回落。考慮到目前房企的資金緊張狀況，預計未來半年到一年房地產開發投資有可能會持續回落，對經濟也會造成拖累。制造業投資向好，1-10月份制造業投資同比增長14.2%，兩年平均為4.45%，恢復到2019年3月的水平。綜上，10月的經濟數據有喜有憂。但是，工業增加值、消費及制造業投資超預期能否持續到年底可能存疑。
叁 刺激政策有可能出臺
考慮到未來房地產市場仍有下行壓力，政府可能會考慮出臺政策措施，從而保持經濟增長的穩定性。有可能受益于政策刺激的板塊包括消費、制造業投資相關板塊等。
肆 標普500每股收益與中國GDP的相關性為90%
根據美國銀行策略分析師，中國占標普500上市公司收入比例平均為5%，但在有些上市公司可能會高達60%。中國中產階級的人口超過美國總人口。對美國公司而言，中國市場空間巨大。同時，這些公司利用中國的低制造成本取得了較快的盈利增速。過去30年，標普500上市公司利潤率擴張的80%來自于全球化。當前中國經濟放緩并沒有完全反應到美股的估值上。來自中國的銷售收入占比排名的前50家標普500公司，其當前估值高于歷史平均估值一個標準差，因為這些公司的盈利增速要快于其他美國的跨國公司以及本土公司。
I. Both A-share and HK stocks corrected on Monday
Chinext Board fell the most, likely due to the opening of Beijing Stock Exchange. Property sector fell 0.9% and 0.8% respectively in A-share and HK market respectively after last week rally.But construction material, home appliance and furniture sector rose. These sectors are correlated with existing homes and their valuation has been pressed to very low levels due to market concern on property sector.
II. The October economic data came in mixed
Industrial value-added and retail sales were above expectation but still at low levels in history. Industrial value-added grew 3.5% year-on-year(yoy) in October. Combined 2020 and 2021 industrial value-added grew 5.2% yoy,which is still at a relatively low level in history. Retail sales grew 4.9% yoy. Combined 2020 and 2021 retail sales grew 4.6% yoy, which is the lowest level from 1995 when the data began to be released. Manufacturing investment grew 14.2% from January to October 2021. Combined 2020 and 2021 manufacturing investment grew 4.45% yoy, which was the level in March 2019. Property investment grew 7.2% from January to October 2021, down from 8.8% in September.
III. There might be stimulus measures
Given the capital constrains of property developers, property investment might see declining growth rate in the next 6-12 months. We judge that government would bring up with more stimulus measures, given the down pressure due to the property sector’s slowdown. Consumption and manufacturing should benefit from these policies.
IV. The US stocks correlate with China economy
China accounts for an average of 5% of SP 500 companies’ sales and more than 60% for some. According to Bank of America the correlation between SP 500 earnings per share and China economy is 90%. Also more than 80% of margin expansion for the SP500 is due to globalization over the last 30 years. Currently those companies ranked at the top 50 based on their revenue from China are valued at one standard deviation higher than their historical average and also higher than other multinationals and domestic companies in the US.
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