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      壹 A股和港股邊際企穩

      上周因為10月社融數據呈現企穩跡象、央行推出碳減排貸款以及政府對房地產行業的政策有放松跡象，A股和港股上漲。同時周末傳出中美關系有進一步改善的跡象和外資在3季度增持中概股的消息。從11月到明年1月份，A股處于業績真空期。根據以往經驗，A股在經歷了近兩個月的調整之后很有可能進入冬季躁動期。我們認為從情緒面上看，A股確實已經到了一個相對低點，疊加政策面的刺激，對年底前的走勢可以樂觀一些。

      貳 廣義貨幣增速和社融企穩

      從貨幣供應量的角度看，10月份的社融存量同比增速保持在9月份的水平為10%，M2的同比增速為8.7%，高于9月份的9.3%，表明信用擴張應該已經開始。這也可以從居民購房貸款審批加快以及專項債發行提速等消息中得到印證。

      叁 狹義貨幣增速走弱

      我們判斷社融和M2的增速可能會保持穩定向上，但M1的增速很可能會繼續走弱。10月份M1同比增速為2.8%，為2020年2月以來的最低水平。從2010年至今11年間，M1同比增速只在2014年1月、2018年10月到2019年2月、2020年4月低于當前水平，M1同比增速在這四個時間段分別為1.2%、0.4-2.7%和0%。M1同比增速在2020年11月、12月和2021年1月份分別為10%、8.6%和14.7%，處在較高水平。因此，我們判斷未來三個月M1的同比增速還會下行，并很有可能在2022年1月份也接近0%。彼時M1同比增速見到最低點。

      肆 股市低點可期

      對股市而言，M1同比增速達到最低點通常會預示股市企穩或者開始反彈。歷史上看，M1同比增速與上證指數低點基本重合或者領先幾個月的時間。據此判斷，上證指數在明年年初或1季度見底的概率較大。投資人如果想參與當前的反彈，我們認為還是尋找估值和基本面匹配的行業，如大金融、地產相關產業鏈等。成長股中也有很多業績增速較高且估值較低的品種，需要自下而上進行挖掘。

      伍 上周A股和港股領漲全球

      受到政策利好因素刺激，A股和港股上周表現較好。而俄羅斯和美國三大指數表現落后。本周北京證券交易所正式開始交易。因北京證券交易所上市公司的估值較科創板和創業板上市公司的估值水平都低，市場對北交所開業后的公司股價表現有一定的期待。

I. Stocks rallied due to favorite policies  

Both A-share and HK stocks rallied last week due to that government loosened policy on property sector and that the People’s Bank of China promoted carbon emission loans. Over the weekend it was reported that Sino-US relationship has the possibility of further improvement and that international investors kept buying Chinese big internet giants. Both A-share and HK stocks could continue to rise given the positive policy environment and news catalysts. Yet based on history A-share might still have room to fall after the rally. 

II. ASF and M2 growth rate has reached bottom

In October the Aggregate Social Financing (ASF) rose 10% year-on-year (yoy), which was line with the growth rate in September. This signals that ASF growth rate might have reached bottom.The broad money M2 grew 8.7% yoy in October, which was higher than that in September. This could mean that M2 has bottomed out as well. 

III. M1 growth rate might fall further 

However, the narrow money M1 only grew 2.8% yoy in October. From 2010 there were three times when M1 yoy growth rate was lower than October 2021, which was Jan. 2014, from October 2018 to Feb.2019, and April 2020. M1 grew 10%, 8.6% and 14.7% yoy in Nov. 2020, Dec.2020 and Jan. 2021. Given the high base over these three months, we judge that the yoy growth rate of M1 might not reach the lowest point until Jan. 2022. The low growth point of M1 usually coincides with the low point of Shanghai Composite Index or lead by a couple of months. As such the low of A-share could be seen in 1Q2022. 

IV. Low-valued stocks and growth stocks are good choices

If investors want to participated in the rebound of stocks low-valued stocks such as financials and property etc could be good choices. There are also growth stocks with reasonable valuation which require bottom-up analysis.

V. Stocks in BSE could perform well

HK stocks and A-share led the global stock markets last week.Russia index along with the three major indexes in the US performed worst. Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) will open on Monday this week. As stocks are valued at a discount in BSE versus those listed in STAR Board and Chinext Board market expects stocks in BSE to perform well.   

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