欧产日产国产精品乱噜噜_羞羞视频免费观看网站_伊人在线视频_一级电影免费_久久免费综合视频_99国产精品国产免费观看

      壹 房地產板塊大幅上漲

      受政策利好刺激，房地產板塊周四上漲5.85%，漲幅在A股28個行業中第一，其次是建筑材料和非銀金融，分別上漲5.42%和3.26%。房地產和建筑材料板塊很多公司都上漲了10厘米或者20厘米。

      貳 政策可能不盡如預期

      市場在歡呼房地產政策放松，但盤后一個關于某市放松房地產限購的傳聞被證偽。同時，遼寧省住房城鄉建設廳近日會同相關部門聯合印發《遼寧省持續整治規范房地產市場秩序行動方案》，重點整治未依法依規取得土地即開工建設，未按期動工或中止開發建設導致住宅項目用地構成閑置土地，房屋存在滲漏、開裂、空鼓等突出質量問題，未按房屋買賣合同約定如期交付，實際交付房屋與樣板間或銷售宣傳資料嚴重不一致等行為。這說明地方政府對房地產企業仍然采取比較嚴厲的監管政策，也說明政策并不如市場期望的那樣寬松。

      叁 估值會提升

      我們判斷當前政策力度僅是讓房地產企業能夠活下去，離全面寬松可能還有很長的一段路要走。同時，當前放松政策并不會對房地產企業的基本面產生立竿見影的效果。因為現金流緊張，年底房地產企業不會積極參加土地拍賣。另外，房地產企業的銷售和新開工等數據在今年4季度和明年1季度也會面臨一定的挑戰，很可能會同比持續負增長。市場前期因政策等因素對房地產及相關板塊如建材家居等極其悲觀，導致這些板塊的估值回落到比較低的水平。我們認為寬松政策有助于房地產及相關板塊估值的提升，隨后板塊應等待業績底的確認。

      肆 雙十一銷售情況良好

      阿里巴巴發布消息稱從11月1日到11日0時45分，已有382個品牌在天貓雙11的成交額超過1億元。京東也在推特上表示，從10月31日晚到11月11日，雙十一的銷售額達到人民幣3111億元。因為國家對互聯網企業的整治，今年雙十一沒有大規模的宣傳活動。同時，消費者也比較理性，而有些商品可能平時購買更劃算。網購已成為中國消費者一個重要的購物渠道，有沒有雙十一消費者都會在網上買東西。

      伍 美國通脹可能已到頂點

      周三美股科技股反彈。美國10月消費者價格指數漲幅超預期，但可能是頂點。作為消費者價格指數的領先指標，干散貨運價指數在今年10月7日達到5650的十年多的歷史高點后，持續下跌。目前已下跌50%，達到6月以來的低點。

I. Property sector rallied 

A-share rallied on Thursday boosted by easing policies targeted property sector. Property sector rose 5.82%, the best-performing sector in A-share. Building material and non-bank financials were the second and third best-performing sector. Each rose 5.42% and 3.82% respectively. 

II. Policies might not be that favorite 

While market sentiment was boosted by policy, the news that some city loosened property purchasing policy proved to be a fake one. Moreover, Housing and Urban-rural Development Office of Liaoning Province issued “The action plan to continue the comprehensive improvement of housing markets in Liaoning Province” on Wednesday with an aim to punish those property developers that do not buy lands legally, do not build houses as regulated, and whose houses built have quality issues etc. This shows that local governments still regulate property developers strictly. 

III. Valuation would improve 

Nevertheless, the liquidity easing from central government would help improve the valuation levels of property developers and those related sectors such as building material sector etc.These sectors have suffered serious valuation contraction over the last couple of months due to regulation from both central and local governments. But the fundamentals of the property sector would still be faced with challenges in 4Q2021 and 1Q2022. The sales volume and new projects might decline year-on-year. Also property developers are not expected to buy land actively in the coming land auction due to their capital shortage and cash flow issues. It takes time for property developers to see their earnings bottom out.

IV. The inflation in the US might peak

Both A-share and HK stocks rose. The US tech stocks rebounded. Some analysts believed that the final two months of 2021 could see inflation ease as the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has declined by 50% from its October peak and recently hit its lowest level since June, tracking a decline in global shipping rates. The US consumer price follows BDI closely.  

聲明：本市場點評由北京楓瑞資產管理有限公司（以下簡稱“楓瑞資產”）“楓瑞視點”微信公眾號提供和擁有版權，授權上海海獅資產管理有限公司轉載。在任何情況下文中信息或所表述的意見不構成對任何人的投資建議，楓瑞資產不對任何人因使用本文中的內容所引發的損失負任何責任。未經楓瑞資產書面授權，本文中的內容均不得以任何侵犯楓瑞資產版權的方式使用和轉載。市場有風險，投資需謹慎。