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      壹 漲價傳導到消費終端

      今年投資人聽到最多的一個詞恐怕就是“漲價”。水泥企業漲價之后化工企業漲價，漲價的理由都是原材料上漲。進入四季度，我們看到價格壓力終于傳導到消費品，消費品企業開始漲價，從醬油到調味料，從啤酒到食用油。

      貳價格壓力傳導需要時間

      這背后對應的月度同比漲幅處在歷史高點的生產者價格指數向消費者價格指數的傳遞。但是由于豬肉價格仍在相對低位，消費者價格指數的同比漲幅仍然較低。我國9月份消費者價格指數同比上漲0.7%，為4月以來的最低同比漲幅，主要是受到豬肉價格下跌的拖累。而生產者價格指數同比漲幅為10.7%，為1996年有數據以來的最高值。價格上漲通常需要半年時間從生產端轉到終端消費者。因此，年初以來的原材料價格上漲現在傳導到了消費品企業。

      叁 漲價不一定帶來凈利潤的提高

      漲價對企業不一定是有益的。如果企業所處行業的競爭格局比較好，漲價通常不會對產品的銷量產生負面影響。因此，漲價就會增加企業的凈利潤。而如果企業所處的競爭格局較差，則漲價通常會導致銷量下降，導致企業得不償失。曾經有一家衛生用品生產企業，在紙漿價格大幅上漲后提高衛生紙價格。但是衛生紙這種產品同質性較高，品牌效應較低，因此漲價導致其產品銷量的下降。

      肆 必需消費品漲價通常比較成功

      必需消費品通常提價會產生積極的效果，主要原因是這些產品的品牌力較強，消費者也不會在意價格的小幅提升。而且這些企業漲價的形式也是多種多樣的，可以通過換包裝（如從大包裝換到小包裝）或者開發出新產品等方式變相提高產品價格。對于客戶是企業的生產企業，他們的產品價格通常隨著原材料價格的變動而變動。因此，對于這些企業而言，漲價是有周期的。但對必需消費品企業而言，漲價通常能夠持久。這背后主要是由于隨著個人可支配收入的提高，消費者尋求更有品質的生活。

      伍 美國公司漲價能力更強

      A股和港股下跌。A股28個行業中6個上漲，22個下跌。其中休閑服務、鋼鐵和采掘跌幅居前。而國防軍工、農林牧漁和汽車漲幅居前。港股連續6天下跌。疫情加劇增加了投資人對中國4季度經濟增長的擔憂，同時某地產商爆出債務問題也打擊了投資者的風險偏好。但A股總體市場沒有泡沫，下行空間有限。3季報顯示美國上市公司基本都能夠傳導原材料上漲的壓力，業績超預期。美股再創新高。

I. Price increase in consumer sectors 

The most frequently mentioned words in 2021 should be price increase. Price increase has happened in various sectors. Before 4Q2021 price increase happened in mid-stream sectors such as petrochemical sector and cement sector etc. Now when it comes to the 4th quarter price increase happened in consumption sectors such as soy sauce, beer, etc. 

II. It takes time for price increase to be transmitted 

The reason is that Producer’s Price Index rose 10.7% year-on-year (yoy) in October, the fastest increase from 1996 when the data began to be released. Consumer’s Price Index rose 0.7% yoy in October due to the continuously falling swine prices. It usually takes half a year or 9 months for the price increase to be transmitted from producers' side to consumers' side. As raw material prices began to increase at the beginning of this year now the price increase has transmitted to consumers products. 

III. Results might differ

The results of products’ price differ from companies. Those companies in a relatively good competitive landscape would enjoy price increase as their products’ sales volume would not be hurt by price increase. For those companies that in very competitive sectors products’ price increase would hurt sales volume. As a result companies would be faced with less profit after products’ price increase. This happened to a well-known hygiene products producer more than 10 years ago. The company raised its toilet paper prices pressured by high-flying paper pulpprices. But toilet paper products do not differ too much from one brand to another. And the price increase pushed consumers to buy other brands at lower prices.

IV. Consumer stables companies usually enjoy price increase 

In general consumer stables can enjoy price increase due to their strong brand names. The rising disposable income of consumers make them look for better quality of life and support price increases of stables.

V. The US companies can transmit raw material prices pressure well 

Both A-share and HK stocks fell.Market is concerned about the economy prospects and cyclical fell sharply. But A-share’s valuation in general has no bubbles, which means that the broad market does not have much room to fall. The US stocks reached another record high boosted by better-than-expected 3Q earnings.

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